WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

19-23 November 2018

This is Thanksgiving Break for the Fall 2018 offering of this course. This Weekly Climate News contains new information items and historical data, but the Concept of the Week is repeated from Week 11.

Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving Week from the AMS Climate Studies Central Staff and Ed Hopkins!

ITEMS OF INTEREST

First images of Alaska, Hawaii and the Pacific made by GOES-17 -- NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-17 satellite reached its intended operational position in a geosynchronous orbit of Earth above the Equator at 137.2 degrees west longitude last week. At that time, the GOES-17 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) sent its first images from this location that will be the satellite's new vantage point as GOES-West beginning on 10 December 2018. In addition to a spectacular full disk image of the Pacific basin in natural color, some of these first images included close-ups of the Hawaiian Islands, a storm over the Gulf of Alaska and the smoke plume from the Woolsey Fire in southern California. [NOAA NESDIS News]
A summary of nation's "spooktacular" October climate -- NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information has updated its summary of typical October weather across the nation in its feature entitled "America's Spooktacular October Climate." Narratives and analyzed maps of monthly temperature and precipitation for October are provided. Extreme monthly temperatures and precipitation totals are noted. A tabulation was made of the daily normal (1981-2010) maximum, minimum and average temperatures for Halloween (31 October) using 10 locations with Halloween-themed names. A discussion of the occurrence of October hurricanes and tornadoes is also provided. [NOAA NCEI News]
Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- For centuries, interested citizens and scientists have been recording the dates of recurring biological and other natural events that appear to be related to the seasons. This tracking of these natural cyclic events, called phenology, if extended over many years, can be used to document how long-term changes in these seasonal events change in response to long-term changes in climate. For more information on recent efforts to establish a nationwide phenological observation network and how it could be used for studying climate change, see this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Review of October 2018 weather and climate across the US -- Using preliminary weather data gathered during the month of October 2018 from across the nation, scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently reported that the average temperature averaged across the 48 contiguous United States for this past month was approximately 0.3 Fahrenheit degrees below the 20th century (1901-2000) long-term average. The nationwide average October 2018 temperature was the 44th lowest October temperature since a comprehensive national climate network began in 1895. The nationwide average maximum (or daytime) temperature this past month was the 21st lowest on record, while the average minimum (or nighttime) temperature was the 22nd highest in 124 years. Fifteen states across the nation's midsection running from Montana and the Dakotas south to Texas, as well as from Utah to the western Great Lakes had statewide temperatures that were below to much below average. The October 2018 statewide average for North Dakota was the twelfth lowest on record. On the other hand, the Middle Atlantic and Southeastern U.S. had above- to much above-average temperatures, with Florida having its fourth highest October average temperature since 1895. Delaware, Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia had statewide average temperatures that ranked in the top eleven highest on record in their respective states. California also had an above average temperature for October.
Alaska experienced its warmest October since a statewide record began 1925 with a statewide average temperature that was 9.0 Fahrenheit degrees above the long-term average, breaking the previous record statewide October temperature set in 2013 by 0.5 Fahrenheit degrees.
Preliminary precipitation records for October 2018 indicate that the nationwide average precipitation total for the month was 1.21 inches above the 20th century average, placing the month as the sixth wettest of the 124-year record. A majority of the contiguous states (36) had above- to much-above precipitation totals. Texas had its wettest October, while eight states (Arizona, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah and Wisconsin) had precipitation totals that ranked in the top ten of their respective state's listing. California and Florida had below-average October precipitation. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
October drought report -- The National Centers for Environmental Information has posted its October 2018 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately nine percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of October, while twenty-one percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.

CLIMATE MONITORING

Special Observing Period in the Antarctic is launched -- During this past week, a three-month Special Observing Period in the Antarctic was launched as a contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) to boost weather, ice and atmospheric observations in a remote area on Earth. YOPP involves the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) and 20 other nations. It is taking place from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in order to cover an entire year in both the Arctic and Antarctic a wide array of partners around the globe. The current Special Observing Period has started near the beginning of meteorological summer in the Southern Hemisphere and involves atmospheric and sea-ice observations from different Antarctic land stations during terrestrial field expeditions and aboard research vessels in the Southern Ocean. More than 2000 extra radiosondes will be released from numerous meteorological stations to sample atmospheric conditions with altitude. [WMO News]
Satellites and ground sensors monitor smoke from California wildfires -- Several sensors on board NASA and NOAA satellites along with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sensors on the ground have been monitoring the large aerosol loading of the atmosphere by the massive wildfires that have been raging across northern and southern California over the last several weeks. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor on the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite have observed expansive smoke and aerosol plumes. The Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) on Suomi NPP observed unusually high aerosol levels and the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) on Terra has detected strong carbon monoxide signals from the fire. The ground-based sensors that measure the mass concentration of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in the air found levels that were 40 times higher than the level considered safe to breathe. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE FORCING

California was primed for historic November wildfires by a hot, dry summer and slow start to wet season -- A meteorologist with NOAA recently posted an "Event Tracker" blog on the ClimateWatch Magazine that discuses the climate conditions that led up to the horrible autumn wildfire season in California. As of the midpoint of last week, the Camp Springs fire to the north of the capital city of Sacramento had become the most destructive and deadliest wildfire in California's modern history. Summer 2018 was much warmer than average across the Golden State, with record warm nights in some places. In addition, precipitation in Northern California ranged from below average to record dry. This lack of precipitation continued across much of the state through September, with precipitation totals less than 5 percent of average. This lack of rain continued into October, which typically marks the beginning of the fall wet season. The extended heat and dryness meant dry ground to start November and the vegetation turned into excellent fire fuel. Strong winds, including the Santa Ana winds in southern California, developed to help spread the wildfires that explosively developed. According to the upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment, the number of large western wildfires has increased from 1984-2011, with the increasing trends likely to be associated from a combination of factors, including fire suppression policies of previous decades and a changing climate. These trends are expected to continue. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

More about NOAA's ENSO Outlook and the El Niño Watch -- An ENSO blog written by a contractor at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for the ClimateWatch Magazine provides a non-technical description of why the CPC forecasters maintain that El Niño conditions have not arrived as of the end of the first week of November. Although the four areas of the equatorial Pacific used as ENSO monitoring regions had above average sea surfaces temperatures that would warrant a possible El Niño, several other atmospheric features have not changed as of early November to an El Niño. These atmospheric conditions not showing the official onset of El Niño conditions include the "Southern Oscillation Index" that is based upon the difference in sea level air pressure between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti, along with the "Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index" that measures the pressure differences between the western and eastern equatorial Pacific. Additionally, cloud observations based upon satellite measurements of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) do not show that El Niño were present in early November. However, she feels that the atmospheric indicators will show a change soon, reflecting the guidance provided by most of the numerical climate outlook models used by CPC forecasters to issue their El Niño Watch over a week ago. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Updated winter weather outlook released -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their updated Three-Month Seasonal Outlook for meteorological winter (the three months of December 2018 through February 2019) across the nation. Specific details of their outlooks include:
- Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, nearly three-quarters of the land area of the 48 contiguous U.S. should experience a high chance of above average temperatures for these three upcoming months. The greatest probability of such an occurrence would be found in the Pacific Northwest, primarily in northwestern sections of Oregon and Washington. The outlook indicates one quarter of the nation, running from Texas eastward to Florida and northward along the Atlantic coast to Maine would have nearly equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions. The entire state of Alaska was expected to experience a warmer than average winter.
  Their precipitation outlook calls for the southern third of the nation, extending from California eastward to the Florida Peninsula and northward along the Atlantic Seaboard through the Middle Atlantic coast should have a better than even chance of above average precipitation for meteorological winter 2018-19. The greatest probability for wetter winter conditions would be centered on northern Florida and nearby sections of Georgia. On the other hand, a large section of the Midwest, centered upon the Upper and Lower Peninsulas of Michigan would have better than even chances of below average precipitation totals for these upcoming three months. Elsewhere, sections of the coterminous states running from the Pacific Coast eastward to the lower Missouri Valley and then eastward across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys to the Appalachians and northeastward across the Middle Atlantic and New England should have essentially equal chances of below and above average precipitation for this upcoming winter. The southern half of Alaska has a good chance of above average winter precipitation, while the northern half of the 49th State would have equal chances, as no clear-cut signal was apparent.
  A summary of the prognostic discussion of the 3-month outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based upon the anticipation that the current ENSO conditions should become an El Niña during this upcoming winter. A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
  NOTE: These outlooks can be compared with the public winter outlooks that CPC released in mid-October 2018.
- Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from late-November 2018 through February 2019.
  Their outlook indicates that many areas across the nation that are currently experiencing drought conditions would continue to experience drought through this upcoming winter. These regions are primarily found across the central Rockies (Colorado and southern Wyoming), the Great Basin (Utah and Nevada), the interior Northwest (Oregon to the east of the Cascades) and the Dakotas. On the other hand, large sections of the Southwest surrounding the Four Corners (Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico), together with the areas along the California and Oregon coasts could see some improvement of their drought conditions, with some areas possibly experiencing a removal from drought status. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

A changing climate could lead to an earlier Alaska pollock spawning season -- Researchers with the Alaska Fisheries Science Center of NOAA Fisheries recently reported that the spawning time of Alaska walleye pollock has varied by as much as three weeks over the past three decades in the Gulf of Alaska. Alaska pollock is the world's second most important fish species in terms of total catch. This study, which is based upon a 32-year data series, provides clear evidence that these changes in spawning time were driven by both climate and fishing. Increased temperatures mean earlier and longer spawning, although, above a certain threshold temperature, increased warming had no additional effect on spawn timing. [NOAA Fisheries Feature Story]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

U.S. crime rates linked to warmer winters -- Researchers at the University of Colorado’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences have found a strong link between U.S. crime rates and climate that has a seasonal pattern. They found that warmer winters in some sections of the nation may result in higher rates of violent crimes, such as robbery and assaults. They suggest that with higher temperatures, more people would be outdoors, leading to an increased opportunity for interpersonal crime. Powerful climate analysis techniques were used to investigate the relationship between year-to-year fluctuations in climate and violent crime rates in U.S. cities since 1979. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences - University of Colorado News]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

This Concept of the Week is repeated from last week.

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Exposure to air pollution that would include a variety of gas species and particulate matter could result in health-related problems, especially those people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in climate could increase air pollutant exposure in several ways. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns resulting in heat waves are often stagnant, which reduce dispersion and create environmental conditions for photochemical reactions that increases ground-level ozone concentrations. Increased ozone has been shown to cause reduction in lung function. These heat waves associated with stagnant weather patterns would also increase fuel combustion for power generation needed for air conditioning. Changes in climate could also affect emissions of natural air pollutants and airborne allergens.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected increases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post-traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

While a range of negative health impacts would be possible from future climate change, adaptation would likely help protect the majority of the nation's population. This adaptation would entail maintenance of the public health and community infrastructure across the nation. Adequate water treatment systems would help curb waterborne diseases, while health care facilities and emergency shelters would help minimize the impacts of heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects, ticks, and rodents.

Historical Events:

19 November 1957...Nineteen inches of snow covered the ground at Cresco, IA, a record November snow depth for the state. (The Weather Channel)
19 November 1996...A 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the state of Oregon was established when 11.65 in. of rain fell at Port Orford. (NCDC)
19 November 2009...Adelaide, Australia reported a temperature reading of 109 degrees, which set an all-time record high for the month of November, Elliston had a 111-degree reading, which was its all-time record for any day. The month of November 2009 was the warmest November on record for Australia. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
20 November 1914...The high temperature of 28 degrees at Atlanta, GA was their earliest daily high below the freezing mark. (The Weather Channel)
20 November 1979...A blizzard struck Cheyenne, WY producing a record 19.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a record total of 25.6 inches in forty hours. Strong winds created huge drifts stopping all transportation. (19^th-21^st) (The Weather Channel)
23 November 1909...Rattlesnake Creek was deluged with 7.17 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for the state of Idaho. (The Weather Channel)
23 November 1943...Northern New Hampshire was in the grips of a record snowstorm that left a total of 55 inches at Berlin, 56 inches at Randolph and many other locations over 40 inches. The 56-inch total at Randolph in Coos County established a 24-hour snowfall record for the state. In Maine, Middle Dam received a record 35 inches of snow in 24 hours. (David Ludlum)
23 November 1974...Bismarck, ND was in the middle of a 5-day snowstorm during which 28.3 inches fell, the greatest on record. (Intellicast)
23 November 1983...A 24-hour snowfall record for Duluth, MN was broken with 16.9 inches. 19.7 inches fell during the entire storm, also a record.
23 November 1991...La Crosse, WI set a new record for 24-hour snowfall with 13 inches. This storm brought the monthly total to 28.2 inches, also a record. (Intellicast)
24 November 1950...The temperature at Chicago, IL dipped to 2 degrees below zero to equal their record for the month established on the 29^th in 1872. On the first of the month that year, Chicago established a record high for November with a reading of 81 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

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