DataStreme ECS WEEK ELEVEN: 19-23 April 2010

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Celebrate Earth Day -- This Thursday (22 April 2010) is the 40th Earth Day, first proposed by the late Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin in 1970 as a teach-in to heighten awareness of the environment. In observance of the 40th anniversary, the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison has posted a website called "Gaylord Nelson and Earth Day: The Making of the Modern Environmental Movement" that highlights Senator Nelson and his idea became Earth Day. A government website provides links to various activities and resources.
  US Department of Commerce and NOAA officials will celebrate this upcoming week as Earth Week at eight of the 50 coastal and Great Lakes habitat restoration projects that have been funded through American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and that are designed to create and support green jobs. [NOAA News] Several of the NASA centers have special Earth Day observances [NASA]
• Meteorite fragments found that lit Midwest skies --
A meteor passed through the atmosphere over Iowa and Wisconsin on Wednesday night producing a light show that was reported by many across the region, as well as by video equipment. Images of the light show were obtained from a web camera mounted on the roof of the Space Science and Engineering Center on the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus. [NASA JPL] Residents of southwestern Wisconsin (including this editor's niece) reported a shock wave that caused a sound and a rattling of buildings. Several meteorite fragments were found near the farming community of Livingston in southwestern Wisconsin approximately 60 miles west of Madison, the state capital. [Chicago Tribune] Some of these fragments were analyzed at the Department of Geophysics at the University of Wisconsin Madison. [University of Wisconsin News]
• Icelandic volcano spreads ash that creates an aviation headache --
A plume of ash and steam from Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull Volcano spread across the North Atlantic and over northwest Europe on winds from the west-northwest late last week prompting aviation authorities in the United Kingdom, Ireland, France, and Scandinavia to close airspace over their countries. An image of the ash and steam plume spreading eastward across the North Atlantic near the Faroe Islands and Shetland Islands was obtained from the MODIS sensor onboard NASA's Terra satellite. [NASA Earth Observatory] An image was also obtained late last week from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer onboard the European Space Agency's Envisat satellite shows the volcanic ash cloud traveling across the United Kingdom from the volcanic eruption in Iceland. [ESA]
Researchers at NASA's Langley Research Center and colleagues at other research institutions are monitoring the data obtained from NOAA and NASA satellites to track the ash clouds as part of the Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products (ASAP) used by the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers that issue volcanic ash warnings for aviation interests. [NASA LARC]
Two numerical dispersion models have been used to forecast ash plume trajectories and dispersion from this volcano, which released an ash plume that reached an altitude of 55,000 feet. [UK Met Office]
A researcher at Texas A&M University warns that his exploration of Icelandic volcanoes over the last 25 years indicates that the ash plume from the currently erupting volcano could intensify. [Texas A&M News]
However, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Colorado at Boulder stated that the volcanic eruption in Iceland currently appears unlikely to have long-term global effects because of the type of ash and the altitude of the plume. [EurekAlert!]
• GOES-13 positioned to be monitor Atlantic hurricanes --
In anticipation of the upcoming 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, engineers repositioned NOAA's GOES-13 spacecraft (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) last week to a position over the equator where it will be able to monitor weather systems, such as tropical storms or hurricanes, over the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, along with other weather systems over the eastern half of the United States. [NOAA News]

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• Record high global temperatures for March 2010 -- Using preliminary data collected from the global network of surface weather stations, scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center report that the combined global land and ocean surface temperature for March 2010 was the highest for any March since global climate records began in 1880. They also reported that the average ocean temperatures were also the highest for any March, while the global land surface temperatures for March 2010 was the fourth highest on record. Furthermore, the first three months of 2010 was the fourth warmest three-month start to a year (January through March). El Niño conditions contributed significantly to the warmth in the tropical belt and the overall ocean temperature. [NOAA News]
• March drought reports --
The National Climate Data Center have posted its March 2010 drought reports online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index as a gauge, approximately five percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of February, while ten percent of the area had moderate to extreme drought. On the other hand, 22 percent of the area in the Lower 48 had severely to extremely wet conditions.

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• European "ice satellite" sends first data -- Early last week, the ground controllers with the European Space Agency successfully received the first data obtained from the radar instrument onboard the Agency's CryoSat-2, which had been launched the previous week. This new polar-orbiting satellite is designed to monitor variations in the planet's ice cover. [ESA]
• Oceanic data reveal an intensified water cycle --
Scientists at Australia's CSIRO/University of Tasmania, Quantitative Marine Science program report that their research of more than 50 years of oceanic data and of more recent data from the world-wide network of Argo ocean profilers indicates the world's water cycle has intensified as global air temperatures increased. They base their conclusions on changes in salinity patterns not only in near surface waters but in the deep ocean. [CSIRO]
• An All-Hazards Monitor--
This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]
• Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes --
A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [NCDC]

CLIMATE FORCING

• Link seen between low solar activity and cold winters in the United Kingdom -- Researchers at the United Kingdom's University of Reading and Germany's Max-Planck Institute claim that they have found link between low solar activity and the position of upper tropospheric jet streams over the North Atlantic that result in relatively cold winters over northwestern Europe, including the British Isles. They warn that although the global average temperatures have increased during the last several decades, the current low solar activity could mean winter temperatures across the United Kingdom could be similar to those that would have been seen at the end of the 17th century. The researchers report finding of a strong correlation between solar activity and a stagnant "blocking" pattern in the jet stream. [EurekAlert!]

CLIMATE MODELING

• A case of "missing heat" could affect future climate outlooks -- Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) warn that current earth observation tools, such as satellite sensors and ocean floats, may be incapable of accounting for approximately half of the heat that the researchers believe to have accumulated in the Earth system during recent years. These researchers warn that this "missing heat", which may be building in the deep oceans, may adversely affect their ability to accurately predict future climates. [UCAR/NCAR]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• New Seasonal Climate Outlooks released -- Last week, forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released their Seasonal Climate Outlooks for the three-months running from May through July, which indicates a high chance of above average temperatures across sections of the Southeast and the West, especially over the Southwest. On the other hand, the Plains States from the Dakotas southward to Texas appear to stand a good chance of having below average temperatures. Elsewhere, near equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions were foreseen. The forecasters also indicated that the Plains should also have a better than even chance for wetter than average conditions in the next three months. Northern New England could also have wetter than average conditions. The rest of the nation should experience equal chances of above or below average precipitation. [NOAA Climate Prediction Center] Outlooks for May are also available.
• Seasonal Drought Outlook released --
The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their Seasonal Drought Outlook that would run from May through July 2010. This outlook indicates drought conditions should persist or develop across the West and the Midwest. Some improvement in drought conditions could occur in the central Rockies.

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

• Deep ice core retrieved from Antarctic Peninsula -- Researchers from Ohio State University have retrieved a 1462-foot long ice core from an ice field on the Antarctic Peninsula, which is the deepest core drilled to date. They hope that this long core will be able to permit them to date global climate changes back into the previous ice age, using a variety of analysis techniques including measuring oxygen isotope ratios. [Ohio State University Research]
• A new geologic epoch suggested --
An international group of scientists, including Nobel Laureate Paul Crutzen, propose amending the current Geological Time Scale to include a new epoch that would be named the Anthropocene (New Human) epoch, which would reflect the effects of global climate change wrought by human activity, including widespread extinction of plants and animals. [EurekAlert!]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Carbon footprint of early Native Americans revealed by stalagmite -- Scientists at Ohio University, the University of Texas at Arlington and the University of Minnesota who have made chemical analyses of stalagmites have found that one found in a West Virginia cave appears to show that the land practices employed by early Native Americans approximately 2000 years ago may have left a bigger carbon footprint across North America than previously thought. [Ohio University]
• Website for human dimensions of climate change --
An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

• Meteorite helps provide evolutionary history of Mars -- Researchers from the University of Houston, the University of Wisconsin-Madison, NASA and the University of Bruxelles who have been analyzing the 4.09 billion-year old meteorite found in Antarctica thought to have originated on Mars have concluded that at one time Mars was wet and had a magnetic field. [EurekAlert!]
• Earthweek --
Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Evolution of Climate Models

Climate scientists have been building increasingly sophisticated, mathematical climate models to serve two main purposes: test the sensitivity of the climate to altered conditions and simulate climate over time, either back into the past or forward into the future. The simplest, early type of climate model (zero dimensional) was the "energy balance model", which provides an average planetary temperature from incoming and outgoing radiation. A one-dimensional energy balance model determines the surface temperature from the energy balance at individual latitude belts.

More complex models involve the physical equations of motion (gas laws, thermodynamics and radiation interactions) subject to climate forcings, the boundary conditions of solar radiation, surface properties and atmospheric composition. As computers improved, models have included a three-dimensional oceanic circulation ("atmosphere-ocean coupling"), then interactions between the atmosphere, cryosphere and geosphere, with climate feedback mechanisms involving the exchanges of heat and water. Finally, models have been able to incorporate the improved knowledge of the biogeochemical processes. Climate models calculate variables such as temperature at individual points within the three-dimensional grid of cells across the Earth's surface and vertically through the atmosphere, ocean, ice and land. A tradeoff exists between the number of grid points (the spatial resolution) and the number of numerical computations. Time and space accuracy costs increased computational time and expense.

The development of numerical weather prediction models during the 1960s and 1970s spurred the development of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate. One of the early atmospheric GCMs was developed at Princeton University's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). By the 1990s, comprehensive climate models were being perfected with three-dimensional oceanic circulation. Ultimately, the term GCM could be used to refer to a Global Climate Model that represents the major climate system components (atmosphere, ocean, land surface and polar ice) and their interactions. The Community Climate Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research is one of the most comprehensive climate models currently available. This model has been used to determine the future temperature response for several scenarios concerning the release of greenhouse gases through the 21st century as proposed by the IPCC reports.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

1. General circulation models are generally [(less), (more)] sophisticated than energy balance models.
2. Increasing the spatial resolution of a global climate model causes the computational time to [(increase),(decrease),(remain the same)].

Historical Events:

• 19 April 1973...Glenrock, WY received 41 inches of snow in just 24 hours, and a storm total of 58 inches, to establish two state records. (18th-20th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
• 20 April 1880...Sacramento, CA had its heaviest 24-hour rainfall when 7.24 inches fell. (Intellicast)
• 20 April 1901...A spring storm produced unusually heavy snow in northeast Ohio. Warren received 35.5 inches in thirty-six hours, and 28 inches fell at Green Hill. Akron established April records of 15.6 inches in 24 hours, and 26.6 inches for the month. Pittsburgh, PA established April records of 12.7 inches in 24 hours, and 13.5 inches for the month. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
• 20 April 1984...A temperature of 106 degrees in Del Rio, TX set a new record high for April. (Intellicast)
• 20 April 1987...Fifty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The high of 92 degrees at Memphis, TN was a record for April, and the high of 94 degrees at Little Rock, AR equaled their April record. (The National Weather Summary)
• 20 April 1989...Hot weather spread from the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains Region. Twenty-three cities reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 104 degrees at Tucson, AZ was an April record, and highs of 87 degrees at Provo, UT, 90 at Pueblo, CO, and 85 at Salt Lake City, UT, equaled April records. (The National Weather Summary)
• 21 April 1989...The temperature at Las Animas, CO soared to 100 degrees to establish a state record for April. Twenty-two cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Eight cities equaled or exceeded previous April records. Tucson, AZ experienced its fourth consecutive day of record heat with an afternoon high of 104 degrees, bringing the total number of days during the month of April 1989 to 11 when record high values had either been matched or broken. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary) (Intellicast)
• 21 April 1992...Two inches of snow fell at International Falls, MN, bringing the winter season snowfall to 106.7 inches and setting a new all-time record for the city. The old record was 104.7 inches set back in the 1988-89 winter season. (Intellicast) Editor's Note: As of Sunday, 19 April 2009, the seasonal snowfall accumulation for the 2008-09 winter has reached a record 124.0 inches. EJH
• 22 April 2003…Tropical Storm Ana formed in the southwestern North Atlantic Ocean, becoming the first Atlantic tropical storm (since records began in 1871) to form during the month April. Maximum sustained winds reached 50 mph. (The Weather Doctor)
• 23 April 1910...The temperature at the Civic Center in Los Angeles, CA hit 100 degrees to establish an April record for the city. (The Weather Channel)
• 23 April 1989...Salina, KS was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 105 degrees. The high of 105 degrees established an April record for the state of Kansas. A total of eighteen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)
• 23 April 1996...One inch of snow on this day at Cleveland, OH brought its seasonal snowfall to 101.1 inches -- the city snowiest winter ever. The old record was 100.5 inches set in 1981-82. (Intellicast)

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2010, The American Meteorological Society.