21-25 March 2011

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• NASA Accepting Applications From "Inspired" high school students --
  US high school students interested in science, technology, engineering, or math (STEM) are invited to participate in NASA's Interdisciplinary National Science Program Incorporating Research Experience, or INSPIRE, through an online learning community. INSPIRE is designed to encourage students in ninth through 12th grades to pursue careers in science, technology, engineering and math. For more information, check http://www.nasa.gov/offices/education/programs/descriptions/INSPIRE_Project.html
• International observances --
Several days during this upcoming week have been designated as special days that are intended to focus public attention on the environment and earth science:
• "World Water Day" --
Monday, 22 March 2011, has been designated by the United Nations (UN) as the annual World Water Day, with this year's theme identified as "Water for cities: responding to the urban challenge," which reflects the importance of water in every-growing urban populations around the world. The United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) is the lead UN agency for this year’s World Water Day 2011. Observance of World Water Day around the world arose from the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro. [UN-Water]
• "World Meteorology Day" --
Tuesday, 23 March 2010 is World Meteorology Day. This day is designated to celebrate the anniversary of the establishment of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on 23 March 1950. The WMO is an agency within the United Nations. The theme of this year's World Meteorological Day for 2010 is "Climate for you."
• "Super perigee moon" over our nation's capital city --
An image was captured of last Saturday evening's full moon rising over the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, DC. Since the moon was within hours of perigee (closest approach to Earth), this full moon appeared nearly 14 percent larger and 30 percent brighter than most, giving it the title "super perigee moon." Such an event occurs only once in every 18 years. The occurrence of perigee near the full moon resulted in slightly higher astronomical ocean tides. [NASA] (Editor's notes: The dark red color of the moon in this image is due to the attenuation of most of the colors of the visible light with the exception of red light as the light from the moon travels along a long path through the atmosphere at moonrise. The slightly fluted and oval appearance of the lunar disk is due to atmospheric refraction as the light rays pass through atmospheric layers with varying air density. EJH)
• Phenological events of note --
While astronomical spring commenced with the occurrence of the vernal equinox early Sunday evening (on 20 March 2011), several reoccurring phenological events also are used to note the onset of spring. These include:
• Buzzards return to Hinckley --
According to local reports from Hinkley, OH, spring occurred last Tuesday morning at 8:28 AM EDT when the first buzzard returned to roost at the Cleveland Metroparks Hinckley Reservation. According to legend, the buzzards return on the 15th of March of every year for nearly 200 years. [Cleveland Plain Dealer]
• Swallows return to Capistrano --
Legend indicates that swallows return to the Mission at San Juan Capistrano in southern California every St. Joseph's Day (19 March). However, at the time of this writing no report of returning swallows was available. The annual Swallows Day parade will be held next Saturday.
• The national Cherry Blossom Watch --
Many tourists descend upon Washington, DC during the spring to view the sights, including the blossoming cherry trees that line the Tidal Basin along the Potomac River. The National Park service operates a website that reports the status of the cherry blossoms in anticipation of the 99th annual Cherry Blossom Festival that is scheduled for next two weeks (Saturday, 26 March to Sunday, 10 April 2011). This site also has a listing of the phenological observations for past bloom dates. According to a recent update, experts expect that the trees should be in peak bloom by the start of the festival next week.
• Updates on last week's Tohoku earthquake and tsunami --
During the last week, several items were made available concerning the massive earthquake and tsunami that developed off northern Honshu, Japan last Friday (11 March 2011).
• Magnitude of Tohoku earthquake updated --
Based upon further analysis of seismological records, the US Geological Society updated the magnitude of the Tohoku earthquake that resulted in a major tsunami from a preliminary magnitude of 8.9 to a magnitude 9.0. This new magnitude ranks last week's earthquake as the fourth largest globally since 1900 and the largest in Japan since modern instrumental recordings began 130 years ago. [USGS Newsroom]
• Earthquake shifted Earth's axis and shortened the day --
A research scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory applied a complex model that according to preliminary estimates appeared to change the distribution of the Earth's mass resulting in a shift in the Earth's figure axis (about which the Earth's mass is balanced) by 6.5 inches and an increase in the planetary rotation rate, which would shorten the length of the day by approximately 1.8 microseconds. [NASA JPL]
• Impact of tsunami on Japan seen from satellites --
Before and after images made of the section of Japan's northeastern coast by instruments on NASA's Terra satellite provide an indication of the magnitude of the destruction by the tsunami. These images obtained from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) instrument [NASA JPL] and the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument. [NASA JPL]
• Monitoring El Niño and La Niña --
Scientists have suggested that some of the unusual weather patterns that have affected not only the United States, but other countries during the last several years, may have been linked to events called El Niño and La Niña. For more details on how to monitor these phenomena using a variety of current weather data, please read this week's Supplemental Information…In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• Review of global weather and climate for February 2011 and boreal winter --
  Using preliminary data collected from the global network of surface weather stations, scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center have determined that the combined global land and ocean surface temperature for February 2011 ranked the seventeenth highest for any February since global climate records began in 1880. They also noted that the combined land-ocean temperature for the three months of December 2010, January and February 2011 was also the sixteenth highest for this three-month Northern Hemisphere winter-Southern Hemisphere summer season. Furthermore, the average global ocean surface temperatures for both February and the three-month season were the tenth highest on record. The global land surface temperature for February 2011 was 28th highest, while that of the December 2010-February 2011 was the 26th highest. The results indicate that the La Niña event continued to be a significant factor.
  The areal coverage of Arctic sea ice during February 2011 tied 2005 for the smallest February extent since satellite surveillance began in 1979.
  The snow cover across both the Northern Hemisphere and North America for the three-month winter season was the third largest for the record that started in the late 1960s. [NOAA News]
• February drought report --
The National Climate Data Center has posted its February 2011 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately seven percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of February, while 18 percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
• Record ozone loss could occur in the Arctic --
Researchers at Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research along with colleagues from 12 other nations warn that their analysis of ozone data collected from an international network of over 30 ozone sounding stations spread across the Arctic basin indicates a rapid depletion of ozone has been occurring, which could result in a record loss of the region's ozone. They consider the unusually low temperatures in the Arctic ozone layer of recent weeks to have initiated this massive ozone depletion. [Alfred Wegener Institute]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• Mapping carbon in Hawaiian forests with new high-resolution techniques --
  Scientists from the Carnegie Institution for Science and the USDA Forest Service's Pacific Southwest Research Station have developed new and more accurate methods for mapping carbon in the forests of Hawaii's Big Island to a resolution of 30 meters using a combination of field measurements, airborne lidar (Light Detection And Ranging) observations and satellite imagery. The investigators believe that their methods could help reveal fundamental ecological controls over carbon storage, including the role of climate, introduced species, and land-use change. [US Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station Newsroom]
• An All-Hazards Monitor --
This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]
• Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes --
A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [NCDC]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

• Corn yield in Africa could be in peril if temperatures rise --
  Researchers from Stanford University and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center report that their analysis of historical crop yield data and weather records across sub-Saharan Africa indicate losses in maize (corn) crop yields would occur across nearly two-thirds of the area with a temperature rise of a one Celsius degree. even with sufficient water. [Stanford University News]
• New tool developed to monitor "vital signs" of coral reefs --
Scientists from the University of Miami, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the US Geological Survey and the University of Puerto Rico have developed a new tool to monitor coral reef vital signs that involve measuring dissolved oxygen production and consumption rates in the reef ecosystem. They believe that their method can improve assessment of how climate change impacts coral reef health worldwide. [University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• New Seasonal Climate Outlooks released --
  During the last week, forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released their Three-Month (Seasonal) Climate Outlooks for the three-months running from April through June 2011. Their outlook for the temperature over these three months indicates a high chance of above average temperatures across the southern tier of states, primarily from southern Arizona eastward to the western Gulf Coast. On the other hand, the northern tier of states, extending from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes appeared to stand a good chance of having below average temperatures. Elsewhere, near equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions were foreseen. The forecasters also indicated that the southern states running from Arizona eastward to the Florida Peninsula should have a better than even chance for drier than average conditions in the next three months, while sections of the northern Plains could experience a good chance of having wetter conditions in April, May and June. [NOAA Climate Prediction Center] One-Month Outlooks of temperature and precipitation for April are also available.
  These outlooks are based on La Niña correlations, recent time series trends in climate and the soil moisture anomaly across the region. The current La Niña episode is expected to dissipate by June.
• Seasonal Drought Outlook released --
The forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook that would run from April through June 2011 in which envisioned drought to persist of expand across the southern and central sections of the nation. Only a few areas across the Midwest could see an improvement in the drought conditions.
• Major spring flooding foreseen across northern sections of nation --
NOAA’s National Weather Service recently released its Spring Flood Risk in which it warned that nearly one half of the coterminous United States has above average risk of moderate to major flooding by mid April, with the largest threats occurring across sections of the northern Plains, the Upper Midwest and the Northeast. Many of these locations had begun experiencing flooding due to snowmelt from an extensive snow cover and recent heavy rainfall. [NOAA News]
As part of last week's national observance of Flood Safety Awareness Week (14-18 March 2011) NOAA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) were reminding citizens of the dangers of flooding, as well as encouraging those who live on flood plains to consider purchasing flood insurance. [NOAA News]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

• Midwest fire history revealed by old-growth tree stumps --
  Researchers from the Illinois State Museum and the Illinois Natural History Survey have reconstructed a 226-year history of fire in southern Illinois by studying fire scars and growth rings in tree stumps in southern Illinois. Their research reveals changes in the frequency of fires dating back to the time of early European settlement have permanently altered the ecology of the region. [University of Illinois News Bureau]
• Ancient "hyperthermals" could serve as guide for future climate change --
A team of researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the United Kingdom's National Oceanography Centre and Germany's University of Bremen who have studied marine sediment samples obtained by the Ocean Drilling Program have found that bursts of intense warming events called "hyperthermals" lasting tens of thousands of years have taken place more frequently throughout history than previously believed. The researchers assume that releases of carbon dioxide sequestered in the deep oceans were the most likely trigger of these ancient "hyperthermal" events, which occurred approximately every 400,000 years approximately 50 million years ago and included the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. They believe that these events could serve as a model for study of the effects of projected increases in global temperatures due to anthropogenic activity. [Scripps News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• NOAA's Arctic Plan is unveiled --
  During a keynote speech delivered last week to the Aspen Institute in Washington, DC, the NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco, announced her agency's strategic plan to study the Arctic sea ice. As part of the NOAA Arctic Vision and Strategy, six goals were listed to improve weather ocean and sea ice forecasting in the Arctic, advocate for better stewardship of the region's resources and to help advance the resilience of healthy Arctic communities. [NOAA News]
• Climate-related weather disasters could help some rural poor --
A study conducted by Ohio State University researchers in Honduras indicates that climate-related weather disasters may sometimes actually provide opportunities for the rural poor to improve their lives by increasing their land wealth and their earnings shares. [Ohio State Research]
• Website for human dimensions of climate change --
An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]
• Earthweek --
Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Seawater Salinity and Carbon Dioxide

The contemporary concern regarding global climate change has caused scientists to study the various factors that govern the ocean's ability to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide. Concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, are on the rise primarily because of increased burning of fossil fuels. Higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be contributing to increased global temperatures, a condition often identified as global warming. The ocean's role in regulating the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on the temperature, salinity, and biological components of surface waters.

Studies show that the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide is primarily temperature dependent. As noted in Chapter 8 of your textbook, gases are more soluble in cold seawater than warm seawater. Hence, changes in sea surface temperature affect the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide. We also found in Chapter 1, photosynthetic organisms assimilate carbon dioxide and release oxygen. Through cellular respiration, all organisms release carbon dioxide. Therefore, biological activity affects the ocean's ability to absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

What about the effects of changes in salinity on the ocean's uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide? Research from the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii provides some insight on this question. For nearly 20 years, scientists have been collecting physical, chemical and biological data through a large column of ocean water at Station ALOHA, a sampling site about 100 km (62 mi) north of Oahu that appears representative of oceanic conditions in the central North Pacific. In 2003, David M. Karl, a biogeochemist at the University of Hawaii in Honolulu, reported a decline in the rate at which surface ocean waters were absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In 2001, the rate of carbon dioxide uptake was only about 15% of the rate in 1989. Why the change in carbon dioxide uptake? In this region of the Pacific north of Hawaii, sea surface temperatures showed no significant change during the period of observation but precipitation decreased and evaporation increased. Less precipitation associated with drought coupled with higher rates of evaporation caused the surface water salinity at ALOHA to increase by about 1%. Increasing salinity inhibits water's ability to absorb gases including carbon dioxide. Karl and his colleagues attribute 40% of the decline in the ocean's carbon dioxide uptake to the saltier waters. The balance of the decline may be due to changes in biological productivity or ocean mixing.

Projected changes in global climate indicate significant changes in precipitation around the globe including reduced precipitation over various large areas of the oceans, resulting in potential "drought" conditions. Since changes in oceanic salinity result from changes in precipitation, the contribution that salinity plays on future assimilation of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the ocean also becomes an important consideration.

Concept of the Week: Questions

Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.

1. With rising sea surface temperatures, the rate of evaporation of seawater [(increases), (decreases)].
2. With increasing salinity and constant temperature, the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is taken up by ocean water [(increases), (decreases)].

Historical Events:

• 22 March 1888… The morning's low temperature at Chicago, IL dipped to one degree below zero, the latest sub zero Fahrenheit reading in the Windy City's history. (The Weather Doctor)
• 23 March 1912...Residents of Kansas City, MO began to dig out from a storm that produced 25 inches of snow in 24 hours . The snowfall total was nearly twice that of any other storm of modern record in Kansas City before or since that time. A record 40 inches of snow fell during the month of March that year, and the total for the winter season of 67 inches was also a record. By late February of that year, Kansas City had received just six inches of snow. Olathe, KS received 37 inches of snow in the snowstorm, establishing a single storm record for the state of Kansas. (23rd-24th) (Intellicast) (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel)
• 24 March 1993...What was to be called "the winter of the return of the big snows" continued to set records. Boston, MA had 8.6 inches of snow on this day to push its monthly total to 38.9 inches that set a new March monthly snowfall record. The old record was 33.0 inches set in 1916. Boston's seasonal snowfall total now stood at 81.7 inches, the third snowiest winter season on record. (Intellicast)
• 25 March 1914...Society Hill, SC was buried under 18 inches of snow, establishing a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
• 25 March 1975...The town of Sandberg reported a wind gust to 101 mph, a record for the state of California. (The Weather Channel)
• 26 March 1913...The Ohio River Basin flood reached a peak. Ten-inch rains over a wide area of the Ohio River Basin inundated cities in Ohio, drowning 467 persons, and causing 147 million dollars damage. The Miami River at Dayton reached a level eight feet higher than ever before. The flood, caused by warm weather and heavy rains, was the second mostly deadly of record for the nation. (David Ludlum)
• 26 March 1930...A two-day snowfall of 19.2 inches at Chicago, IL was the greatest modern snowfall on the record books at Chicago. (Intellicast)
• 26 March 1954...The temperature at Allakaket, AK plunged to 69 degrees below zero, setting a record for the lowest temperature ever for March. (The Weather Channel)
• 26-28 March 2004…The first ever confirmed hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, named Catarina, struck the coast of the Brazilian states of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul with heavy rains and winds, before dissipating over land late on the 28th. (The Weather Doctor)
• 27 March 1931...A blizzard that struck western Kansas and adjoining states was called the "worst since January 1888". The low temperature of 3 degrees below zero, which was reached during the blizzard, stands as the lowest temperature recorded so late in the season. (Intellicast)
• 27-28 March 1964...The most powerful earthquake in US history, the Good Friday Earthquake, rocked south central Alaska, killing 125 people and causing $311 million in property damage, especially to the city of Anchorage. The earthquake in Prince William Sound, which had a magnitude of 9.2 on the Richter scale, caused some landmasses to be thrust upward locally as much as 80 feet, while elsewhere land sank as much as 8 feet. This earthquake and submarine landslides also created a tsunami that produced extensive coastal damage. A landslide at Valdez Inlet in Alaska generated a tsunami that reached a height of 220 feet in the inlet. A major surge wave that was approximately 100 ft above low tide caused major damage to Whittier (where 13 died) and other coastal communities in Alaska. The first wave took more than 5 hours to reach the Hawaiian Islands where a 10-foot wave was detected, while a wave that was 14.8 feet above high tide level traveled along portions of the West Coast, reaching northern California 4 hours after the earthquake. Nearly 10,000 people jammed beaches at San Francisco to view the possible tsunami, but no high-amplitude waves hit those beaches. Tsunami damage reached Crescent City in northern California. Tens of thousands of aftershocks indicated that the region of faulting extended about 600 miles. The Alaska Tsunami Warning Center was established in the wake of this disaster, with a mission to warn Alaskan communities of the threat from tsunamis. [See the 1964 Prince William Sound Tsunami page from the University of Washington.] (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar) (US Coast Guard Historians Office)
• 27 March 1984...A strong storm system traversing northern Texas pulled very hot air northeastward into southern Texas. The temperature at Brownsville, TX soared to 106 degrees, which broke not only the monthly record high temperature but the all-time record as well. Cotulla, TX reached 108 degrees, equaling the March record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel) (Intellicast)

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2011, The American Meteorological Society.