DataStreme ECS WEEK ELEVEN: 11-15 April 2011

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Interagency cooperation to streamline climate education --
  Three governmental agencies, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Science Foundation (NSF) are collaborating in an effort to streamline climate education across the nation in an attempt to teaching the public about the science of global climate change. The intended audience includes K-12 teachers, undergraduates, college faculty and informal educators who are preparing the next generation of scientists and educators working in climate-related fields. [NASA]
• First Climate Assessment Advisory Committee meeting --
Last week, NOAA convened its First National Climate Assessment Federal Advisory Committee Meeting in Washington, DC. Dr. Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator gave the opening keynote address. [NOAA News]
• National Park Week --
The US Department of the Interior's National Park Service has designated the week commencing on this coming Saturday (16-24 April 2011) as National Park Week. The focus for this year's observance is "Healthy Parks, Healthy People," highlighting the connection between human and environmental health and the vital role America's national parks play in both. In observance of this event, free entry can be made to any of the 394 national parks in the system. [National Park Service Fee Free Days]
• Development of climatographies --
Learn about the various globally averaged instrumental temperature records that scientists with the National Climatic Data Center have produced in this week's Supplemental Information…In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• National weather and climate reviewed for March 2011 --
  Scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center recently reported that their analysis of preliminary data indicates March 2011 across the United States was warmer and slightly wetter than normal. The monthly temperature averaged across the coterminous US for March 2011 was 1.4 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century (1901-2000) average. Above to much above average temperatures were reported across the Southern States and the southern Rocky Mountains, while below average temperatures were found across the northern states and along the West Coast. Precipitation across the coterminous US in March was nearly one quarter of an inch above the 20th century average. While many areas along the West and East coasts received above average precipitation in March, the central and southern United States remained mainly dry. Texas had its driest March on record, which extends back to 1895 when comprehensive climate records became available nationwide. [NOAA News]
• Snowmelt leads to flooding across the Upper Midwest --
A sequence of images of the retreat of snow across the Upper Midwest were made in late February, late March and early April from data collected by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. These images show the retreat of the extensive snow cover that had blanketed the region and which has resulted in flooding conditions along the Minnesota and upper Mississippi River basins. [NASA Earth Observatory]
Three natural-color images from the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA's Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite shows the snow cover and melting in the area around Fargo, ND and Moorhead, MN for December 2010, March 2011 and April 2011. This region is being affected by spring flooding along the Red River of the North. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• NASA's Global Hawks mark their first anniversary --
  Scientists and engineers at NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center marked the first anniversary of research flights made by NASA's Global Hawk robotic aircraft. These unmanned aircraft, which can fly to altitudes of 60,000 feet and have ranges of nearly 5200 miles, are equipped with a variety of high-tech instruments used to collect atmospheric data. Global Hawks have participated in one dozen science missions. [NASA Dryden Flight Research Center]
• NASA's Aquarius readied for flight --
The NASA instrument called Aquarius designed to measure sea surface salinity from the Argentinian Satélite de Aplicaciones Científicas (SAC)-D spacecraft continues to be tested and readied for the scheduled launch in early June from California's Vandenberg AFB. [NASA GSFC]
• Thirteen-year SeaWiFS mission comes to an end --
NASA scientists and engineers have declared that the SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view-Sensor) mission has ended after a 13-year run following the loss of signals from OrbView-2 spacecraft, which carried the SeaWiFS instrument. The SeaWiFS instrument was the first to provide a measure of the planet's land- and water surface-based biological life based upon land vegetation and ocean color. [NASA's Earth Science News Team] [NASA Earth Observatory]
• Arctic sea ice mission nears completion for 2011 --
NASA's Operation IceBridge mission for 2011 are nearly complete as eight out of nine planned sea ice flights have been made as late last week from Thule, Greenland, with one additional flight scheduled from Kangerlussuaq, Greenland. IceBridge continues to collect sea ice thickness data following the termination of the data stream from NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) in 2009. [NASA Earth Science News Team]
• Number of rainy days increased over Iberian Peninsula during 20th Century --
Research on rainfall frequency across the Iberian Peninsula conducted by scientists at Spain's University of Extremadura indicates that between 1903 and 2003, the number of rainy days increased, except in the area of the Gulf of Cadiz and in western Portugal. However, rainfall amounts decreased, except in these two regions. [EurekAlert!]
• An All-Hazards Monitor --
This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]
• Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes --
A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [NCDC]

CLIMATE FORCING

• Accelerated warming of polar caps investigated --
  A scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center claims that his research using Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite data and a climate model indicates that the Earth's polar caps are warming faster than the rest of the planet because energy in the atmosphere is carried to the poles through large weather systems. He also noted that greater warming occurs in winter than in summer. [NASA’s Earth Science News Team]

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE BIOSPHERE

• Rare alpine insect may disappear along with glaciers --
  Scientists with the US Geological Survey, the University of Montana, the US Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Park Service recently warned that the meltwater stonefly (Lednia tumana), a rare aquatic insect, is under pressure due to loss of alpine glaciers and snowpack due to warming of the climate. One such area is in Montana's Glacier National Park. [LabSpaces]
• Tree leaves exposed to drought could affect soil nutrients --
A recent study conducted at Purdue University has found that tree leaves exposed to warmer and drier weather conditions exhibit chemical changes that could ultimately affect the availability of soil nutrients through the production of increased amounts of tannins. The study suggests that changing climate could have adverse effects on plants and soils. [Purdue University News Service]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• Hurricane forecast update --
  Last week, the hurricane forecast team from Colorado State University headed by Phil Klotzbach released its April update of their forecast of the 2011 North Atlantic hurricane season that officially begins on 1 June 2011. The team foresees a more active hurricane season than average due in part to warmer than average surface waters in the equatorial Atlantic. In addition, the current La Niña event should weaken, which would still favor an active Atlantic hurricane season. In this April update to their initial forecast made last December, the forecasters call for 16 named tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms), with nine potentially becoming hurricanes. As many as five hurricanes could become severe, reaching category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. They also anticipate a higher than average probability of a major Atlantic hurricane making landfall somewhere along the coast of the coterminous US. [USA Today] [The Tropical Meteorology Project]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

• Cause of long-term sand drift in Norway explained --
  Scientists at Norway's University of Stavanger claim that the sand dunes along the southwestern coast of Norway developed because the sand has drifted for more than 9000 calendar years due to sea-level changes and human activities. [University of Stavanger]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Public's climate beliefs may shift with day's weather conditions --
  Researchers affiliated with Columbia University who conducted three separate studies involving the survey of approximately 1200 people in the US and Australia found that those respondents who thought the current day's temperature was above average were more likely to believe in global warming than those thinking day was unusually cold. The researchers feel that some people are swayed by easy evidence, such as their own estimation of daily temperature. [The Earth Institute Columbia University]
• Unprepared cities may be at major risk from climate change --
A researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research warns that her examination of urban policies would indicate that many of the world's fastest growing urban areas could suffer disproportionately from the impacts of changing climate, unless necessary steps are taken to protect residents of these cities. Her work also concludes that most cities are failing to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that affect the atmosphere. [NSF]
• Mangroves can play key role in climate change--
Scientists from the Center for International Forestry Research and the US Department of Agriculture's Forest Service warn that mangroves, store exceptionally more carbon than most tropical forests, are being destroyed from coastlines at a rapid rate causing significant emissions of greenhouse gases. They call for protection of mangroves as part of global efforts to combat climate change. [Center for International Forestry Research]
• Website for human dimensions of climate change --
An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]
• Earthweek --
Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Evolution of Climate Models

Climate scientists have been building increasingly sophisticated, mathematical climate models to serve two main purposes: test the sensitivity of the climate to altered conditions and simulate climate over time, either back into the past or forward into the future. The simplest, early type of climate model (zero dimensional) was the "energy balance model", which provides an average planetary temperature from incoming and outgoing radiation. A one-dimensional energy balance model determines the surface temperature from the energy balance at individual latitude belts.

More complex models involve the physical equations of motion (gas laws, thermodynamics and radiation interactions) subject to climate forcings, the boundary conditions of solar radiation, surface properties and atmospheric composition. As computers improved, models have included a three-dimensional oceanic circulation ("atmosphere-ocean coupling"), then interactions between the atmosphere, cryosphere and geosphere, with climate feedback mechanisms involving the exchanges of heat and water. Finally, models have been able to incorporate the improved knowledge of the biogeochemical processes. Climate models calculate variables such as temperature at individual points within the three-dimensional grid of cells across the Earth's surface and vertically through the atmosphere, ocean, ice and land. A tradeoff exists between the number of grid points (the spatial resolution) and the number of numerical computations. Time and space accuracy costs increased computational time and expense.

The development of numerical weather prediction models during the 1960s and 1970s spurred the development of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate. One of the early atmospheric GCMs was developed at Princeton University's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). By the 1990s, comprehensive climate models were being perfected with three-dimensional oceanic circulation. Ultimately, the term GCM could be used to refer to a Global Climate Model that represents the major climate system components (atmosphere, ocean, land surface and polar ice) and their interactions. The Community Climate Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research is one of the most comprehensive climate models currently available. This model has been used to determine the future temperature response for several scenarios concerning the release of greenhouse gases through the 21st century as proposed by the IPCC reports.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

1. General circulation models are generally [(less), (more)] sophisticated than energy balance models.
2. Increasing the spatial resolution of a global climate model causes the computational time to [(increase),(decrease),(remain the same)].

Historical Events:

• 12 April 1815...Massive eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia blew 400 cubic kilometers (100 cubic miles) of ash skyward. Eruption disrupted the global weather for several years, particularly noteworthy: the cold summer of 1816 in North America and Europe. (The Weather Doctor)
• 12 April 1934...Winds atop Mount Washington, NH (elevation 6288 feet) averaged a world record 186 mph for five minutes, with a peak gust from the southeast of 231 mph, which is the highest wind speed ever clocked in the world. (David Ludlum) On 10 April 1996, a wind gust of 253 mph was measured when the eyewall of Tropical Cyclone Olivia passed over Australia's Barrow Island and is now considered to be the highest surface wind speed record. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
• 12 April 1985...Key West, FL set a new record for April rainfall in a 24-hour period as 6.06 inches of rain were recorded, eclipsing the previous record of 6.04 inches which fell on 29 April 1941. In addition, the heavy rainfall shattered the old record for this date set back in 1931 when 1.49 inches of rain fell. (Intellicast)
• 12 April 1996...Duluth, MN recorded 1.7 inches of snow on this day to raise its seasonal snowfall total to 132.8 inches -- its snowiest winter on record. The old record was 131.6 inches set back in 1949-50. (Intellicast)
• 13 April 1955...The town of Axis, AL was deluged with 20.33 inches of rain in 24 hours establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)
• 13 April 1985...The high temperature of 86 degrees for this date at Medford, OR was the highest ever so early in the spring season. (Intellicast)
• 14 April 1933...The state intensity record for snowfall for New Hampshire was set at Franklin Lake as 35 inches fell in 24 hours. (Intellicast)
• 14 April 1986...The world's heaviest hailstone, weighing 2.25 pounds, fell in the Gopalganj District of Bangladesh. This hailstone could have reached speeds in excess of 90 mph. (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar) (Wikipedia)
• 15 April 1921...Two-mile high Silver Lake (elevation 10,220 ft) in Boulder County, Colorado received 75.8 in. of snow in 24 hrs, the heaviest 24-hr total of record for North America. The storm left a total of 87 in. in twenty-seven and a half hours. (David Ludlum)
• 15 April 1927...New Orleans, LA was drenched with 14.01 inches of rain, which established a 24-hour rainfall record for the state. This record was eclipsed in August 1962, when 22.00 inches fell in a 24-hour span. (The Weather Channel)
• 16 April 1975...A single storm brought 119 inches of snow to Crater Lake, OR, establishing a state record. (Intellicast)
• 16 April 2007…An intense nor'easter raging along the New England Coast caused the barometric pressure reading at Albany, NY to fall to 28.84 inches of mercury (976.68 mb), the lowest barometric pressure reading ever recorded in April in the Empire State's capital city. (The Weather Doctor)
• 17 April 1948…A ten-minute deluge dumped 34 mm (1.34 inches) of rain on Tauranga, the wettest 10 minutes ever recorded on New Zealand. (The Weather Doctor)
• 17 April 1997...The Red River of the North crested at Fargo, ND, with a record crest of 39.6 ft, which is 22.6 ft above flood stage. This record flood, produced by several major winter storms, heavy spring rain, rapid snow melt, and ice jams, was responsible for at least 11 deaths (7 in North Dakota and 4 in Minnesota) and tremendous property damage along with large scale evacuations of residents from the Grand Forks metropolitan area. Dikes along the river gave way. Overall damage and cleanup costs have been estimated to range from $1 to $2 billion in Grand Forks, where a portion of the downtown burned as firefighters had a difficult time reaching the buildings due to the flood. [NCDC]
  Editor's Note: "History repeats!" During the second week of April 2001, the Red River at Grand Forks reached a river stage of 45 ft, or approximately 17 ft above flood stage and about 7 ft below the top of the levee. In 1997 this gauge measured a record 54.35 ft. EJH

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2011, The American Meteorological Society.