WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

WEEK TWO: 28 January-1 February 2013

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Groundhog Day and climatology -- This coming Saturday (2 February 2013) is Groundhog Day, celebrated by many communities around the nation with much fanfare. According to legend, if the groundhog emerged from its burrow after hibernation on this day and saw its shadow, it would return to hibernation, thereby indicating six more weeks of wintry weather. Most people assume that a converse holds true - if no shadow were seen, an early spring should be expected. According to a Groundhog Day report prepared by the National Climatic Data Center, no convincing statistical evidence appears to support this belief of the prognostic capabilities of the groundhog. The only point that can be considered to have any meteorological significance is that cloud free weather conditions would be responsible for allowing a woodchuck or human to cast a shadow. Such cloud-free weather conditions in early February typically are associated with a cold mass of air that would usually send all but the hardiest resident back into a nice warm shelter. This legend also coincides with an ancient late winter festival, since next Saturday is the customary halfway point of the astronomical winter season (the point is closer to Sunday, 4 February 2013). To the ancients, this date was significant because it was one of the four Cross Quarter Days, marking an important astronomical milestone. The day is located essentially at the point half way between the winter solstice, marking the occurrence of the shortest length of daylight in the Northern Hemisphere (21 December 2012) and the spring equinox (21 March 2013), when equal lengths of daylight and darkness occur once again. So regardless of what your local groundhog "predicts" the beginning of astronomical spring is still six weeks away.
• Climatology of Super Bowls updated -- Next Sunday (3 February 2013) is "Super Sunday" when the San Francisco 49ers will play the Baltimore Ravens in the National Football League's Super Bowl XLVII at Mercedes-Benz (formerly, Louisiana) Superdome in New Orleans, LA. The service climatologist for the Southeast Regional Climate Center has provided an updated listing of the Super Bowl Weather & Climate 1967-2012. This annotated list contains the "climatology" for game day that includes the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, the 24-hour precipitation and the 24-hour snowfall along with comments on the weather observed in the host city on "Super Sunday" for each of the previous 46 Super Bowl games. The climatology for the New Orleans metropolitan area for next Sunday is also available from the National Weather Service Forecast Office at New Orleans/Baton Rouge.
  During the last 46 years the Super Bowl has been played in 14 different metropolitan areas. After years of restricting the selected site to relatively warm cities or at domed stadiums, NFL officials have scheduled next year's Super Bowl for the outdoor, cold weather MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, the home of the New York Giants and Jets.
• Participate in second campaign of Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2013 -- The second in a series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2013 will begin next Thursday (31 January) and continue into the following week, running through 9 February. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation (Orion or Leo in the northern hemisphere, and Orion and Crux in the southern hemisphere) with seven star charts of progressively fainter stars. In addition to the previously held 3-12 January 2013 campaign, the three additional GLOBE at Night campaigns will be in 2013: 3-12 March; 31 March-9 April and 29 April-8 May. Check the GLOBE at Night website for additional information on this week's activities plus a Teacher Information Page and activity packet.
• One for the record books -- If you would like more background information concerning how various temperature and precipitation extremes are identified as record events from a station's climate record, please read this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• Using satellite information to detect lingering drought across nation -- Maps of the relative surface soil moisture content and the ground water storage across the coterminous United States during the second week of January 2013 were made from data collected by NASA's twin Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites along with other satellites and ground-based measurements. These maps show deep drought conditions continue across many areas of the Rockies, the Plains, the upper Midwest and the Southeast. However, some regions have received some relief from recent weather systems that brought rain and snow. [NASA Earth Observatory] Editor's note: The most recent map from the US Drought Monitor shows somewhat similar areas of drought. This often-cited Drought Monitor is based upon precipitation and temperature data from surface observations, streamflow data and output from a soil moisture model run by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. EJH
• Monitoring the recent Australian heat wave -- A map of the land surface temperature anomalies across Australia during the first eight days of January 2013 was produced from data collected from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on NASA's Aqua satellite. The surface temperature anomalies are the arithmetic difference between the current observed surface temperatures and the eight-year average for the same time span from 2005 through 2012. The first eight days of 2013 were part of the 20 hottest days on record across Australia, with a nationwide average temperature of 104.2 degrees Fahrenheit (40.11 degrees Celsius) on 7 January 2013 according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• Europe's prime geosynchronous weather satellite gets a new partner -- During the last week, scientists and engineers at European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) have released the first operational image obtained from data collected by the agency's new Meteosat-10 satellite, which replaced Meteosat-9 as the prime geosynchronous satellite that provides operational weather and climate monitoring services over Europe, Africa and adjacent oceans. However, both satellites will continue to provide full disc coverage of this sector. Meteosat-10 satellite was launched last July. [NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab]
• High altitude balloon flight record scattered -- The NASA Super-Tiger Balloon, a high altitude and long duration scientific balloon capable of carrying instruments, recently shattered a record for the longest duration flight by a balloon that size as it continued to remain aloft for 46 days as it circled the South Pole for the third time. This balloon, which is participating in the Super Trans-Iron Galactic Element Recorder (Super-TIGER) experiment, is carrying a new instrument for measuring rare heavy elements among the flux of high-energy cosmic rays bombarding the Earth. The 39-million cubic foot Super-Tiger Balloon carries the 6000 pound Super-TIGER payload at a float altitude of 127,000 feet above Antarctica. [NASA Wallops Flight Facility]
• An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]
• Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes -- A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [NCDC]

CLIMATE FORCING

• Air quality standards and climate may benefit from new ozone study -- Researchers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., and the University of Colorado, Boulder have found in their analysis of the impacts of chemical emissions around the world that those chemicals such as nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons responsible for increased ozone concentrations at low altitudes also contribute to increased temperatures. From their analysis of data from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer instrument on NASA's Aura spacecraft showing the thermal absorption of ozone, they concluded that location is important for affecting air quality and climate. [NASA JPL]
• Following "ship tracks" off West Coast from space -- A natural-color image recently obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on NASA's Aqua satellite along with an animated sequence of images from NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-West) show "ship tracks" over the eastern North Pacific Ocean off the West Coast of North America. The ship tracks were thin, serpentine clouds that formed in the wake of ships traversing the eastern North Pacific from the ship exhausts. Tiny airborne particles, called aerosols, from the exhausts seeded the atmosphere and caused the condensation of water vapor into the observed clouds that formed the ship tracks. Presence of numerous ship tracks appear to have conflicting effects on climate, as the clouds and the carbon dioxide from the fossil fuel combustion by the ships would increase temperature, but numerous ship track clouds could form a cloud deck that would be highly reflective of sunlight, which would help reduce temperature. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

• Amazon forest being jeopardized by severe climate events -- An international team of researchers led by those at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have found that the "megadrought" beginning in the western Amazon rainforests caused widespread damage and die-offs to trees across a region approximately twice the size of California. This rainforest is currently experiencing slow recovery. The researchers warn that recurrences of droughts every few years, coupled with damage to forests in southern and western Amazonia may be the first signs of potential large-scale degradation due to climate change. The research team analyzed more than a decade of satellite microwave radar data collected between 2000 and 2009 over Amazonia, including rainfall estimates from NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite and estimates of the moisture content and structure of the forest canopy (top layer) from the Seawinds scatterometer on NASA's QuikScat spacecraft. [NASA JPL]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

• Greenland ice cores show last warm period may be good analog for current warming of planet -- An international team of scientists from 14 nations participating in the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) Project have recently released their analysis of deep ice cores from the Greenland ice sheet that extend back at least 130,000 years. Their results indicate that the temperature in north Greenland rose to about 14 Fahrenheit higher than today during the Eemian interglacial period (between 130,000 and 115,000 years ago) when sea levels were 15 to 25 feet higher than currently. The researchers claim that the climate during this last interglacial period could serve as a good analog for future conditions on Earth as greenhouse gases increase and temperatures continue to rise. [University of Colorado, Boulder] [Explore CSIRO]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Independent voters shift beliefs on climate change with the weather -- In public opinion surveys conducted by researchers at the University of New Hampshire, the climate change beliefs of independent voters appear to be swayed dramatically by short-term weather conditions. Unseasonably high or low temperatures on the interview day and the previous day seemed to shift the respondents' beliefs that humans are changing the climate. [University of New Hampshire Media Relations]
• Federal crop insurance payments break record in 2012 -- The US Department of Agriculture reported that federal crop insurance payments made to farmers across the United States in 2012 appears to have established a record, with $12.3 billion paid out so far to date. Farmers who grew corn received the bulk of the indemnities (63 percent), while those who grew soybeans received 13 percent. Drought across approximately two thirds of the nation in 2012 was responsible for the record crop insurance payouts. Some experts claim that final numbers may indicate indemnities could top $20 billion, nearly double the old record set in 2011. [Reuters]
• Website for human dimensions of climate change -- An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]

COMPARATIVE PLANETOLOGY

• Grooves on Martian dunes due to thawing of dry ice -- Researchers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory claim that their analysis of images of sand dunes in the north polar region of Mars obtained High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter suggests that the grooves on these sand dunes are caused by the seasonal warming cycle. The winter blanket of frozen carbon dioxide in these dunes thaws, which releases carbon dioxide gas with an accompanying increase in pressure that expels sand into dark fans across the remaining ice layer. [NASA JPL News]
• Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

A request: If you have some ocean-related experience that you would like to share with other DataStreme Earth's Climate System participants, please send them to the email address appearing at the bottom of this document for possible inclusion in a News file. Thank you. EJH

Concept of the Week: Feedback in Earth's Climate System

Consider examples of positive and negative feedback. A warming trend in climate is likely to accelerate the rate of melting of snow and ice, producing more bare ground that absorbs more solar radiation, further raising the air temperature. A cooling trend prolongs snow and ice cover in spring and summer so that less solar radiation is absorbed, more reflected to space, bringing about additional cooling. In both cases, feedback is positive because the initial change in temperature is amplified.

Consider an example of negative feedback. While feedbacks among temperature, cloud cover, and radiation are not well understood and depend upon circumstances (e.g., type and height of clouds), they could be either positive or negative. It is thought that a warming trend in climate should increase the rate of evaporation of water from Earth's surface and thereby increase low cloud cover. A thicker and more extensive low-cloud cover reflects more solar radiation to space thereby inhibiting a further rise in surface temperature. Hence, this negative feedback would dampen the initial temperature change.

Understanding feedback in the climate system is essential for modeling and predicting climate change. If some agent or mechanism alters the climate, then feedback may either amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the change in climate. As demonstrated later in this course, many agents and mechanisms can bring about climate change (e.g., variations in solar energy output, regular fluctuations in Earth-Sun geometry). While these climate forcing agents and mechanisms drive climatic change, processes within the planetary climate system involving feedbacks significantly impact the magnitude of climate change.

Overall, which type of feedback prevails in Earth's climate system, positive or negative? A system in which positive feedback prevails is unstable. For Earth, this would move the climate regime toward an extreme characterized by excessive cold that would encase the planet in snow and ice ("snowball" or "ice ball" Earth) or toward the other extreme resulting in much higher temperatures--the product of a runaway greenhouse effect. Although Earth's climate has varied considerably over the billions of years that constitute geologic time, it appears likely that Earth's climate system has been nearly stable with negative feedbacks generally compensating for positive feedbacks.

Concept of the Week: Questions

Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.

1. The magnitude of a climate change [(largely depends upon)(is independent of)] positive and negative feedback phenomena operating in Earth's climate system.
2. Through much of Earth history, it appears that [(positive feedbacks)(negative feedbacks)(a general balance between positive and negative feedbacks)] have (has) prevailed.

Historical Events:

• 28 January 1925...The temperature at Pittsburg, NH fell to 46 degrees below zero, establishing a new record low temperature for the state. (Intellicast) In January 1934, this record was broken with a reading of 47 degrees below zero. (NCDC)
• 28 January 1963...The low temperature of 34 degrees below zero at Cynthiana, KY equaled the state record established just four days earlier at Bonnieville. (The Weather Channel) This all-time state record for Kentucky has since been eclipsed by a 37 degree zero reading in January 1994. (NCDC)
• 28 January 1988...Barometric pressure readings of 30.55 inches at Miami FL, 30.66 inches at Tampa, FL, and 30.72 inches at Apalachicola, FL were all-time record high readings for those locations. (National Weather Summary)
• 28 January 1989...Nome, AK reported an all-time record low reading of 54 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)
• 29 January 1934...The temperature at the Observatory on top of Mt. Washington, NH (the highest point in New England) fell to 47 degrees below zero, establishing a new all-time record low temperature for the state. (NCDC)
• 30 January 1966...Alabama's record low temperature of 27 degrees below zero was set at New Market. Mississippi's record low temperature of 19 degrees below zero was set near Corinth. North Carolina's record low temperature of 29 degrees below zero was set at Mount Mitchell. (Intellicast) The record for the Tarheel State has been broken with a reading of 34 degrees below zero in January 1985. (NCDC)
• 31 January 1911...Tamarack, CA was without snow the first eight days of the month, but by the end of January had been buried under 390 inches of snow, a record monthly snowfall total for the U.S. (The Weather Channel)
• 31 January 1920...The highest barometric pressure observed in the contiguous forty-eight states was recorded at Northfield, VT with a reading of 31.14 inches of mercury (1054.5 millibars). (The Weather Doctor)
• 31 January 1963...The Mt. Rose Highway Station near Reno, NV reported 7.13 inches of precipitation, which set a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for Nevada. (NCDC)
• 31 January 1989...The barometer rose to 31.85 inches of mercury (1079.7 millibars) at Northway, AK, establishing the all time highest reading for the North American continent. (The Weather Doctor)
• 31 January 1994...Caribou, ME recorded its coldest month ever. The average temperature for the month was a frigid 0.7 degrees below zero. The old record was 1.3 degrees set in January 1957. (Intellicast)
• 1 February 1985...The temperature at Gavial, NM dropped to a state record low of 50 degrees below zero. The state record low temperature in Colorado of 60 degrees below zero was tied at Maybell. A station at Peter's Sink, UT reported a temperature of 69 degrees below zero, which set the all-time state record. (NCDC)
• 2 February 1951...The record low temperature for the state of Indiana was set at Greensburg when the mercury fell to 35 degrees below zero; this record was broken in January, 1994. (Intellicast)
• 2 February 1952...The only tropical storm of record to hit the U.S. in February moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and a cross southern Florida. It produced 60-mph winds, and two to four inches of rain. (2nd-3rd) (The Weather Channel)
• 2 February 1996...Extremely cold air covered the north-central U.S. Tower, MN dropped to 60 degrees below zero to set a new state low temperature record. International Falls, MN and Glasgow, MT both set records for the month of February with 45 and 38 below zero, respectively. Rochester, MN dipped to 34 below zero for its lowest temperature in 45 years. Green Bay, WI only reached 16 degrees below zero for the high temperature for the day, which is its lowest high temperature on record in February. Meanwhile, farther to the east, heavy snow fell across the mid-Atlantic region. Eighteen inches of snow was recorded at Rehoboth Beach, DE and 17 inches fell at Solomons, MD. Charleston, WV recorded 6.8 inches of snow for the day to bring its seasonal snowfall to 80.7 inches, the city's snowiest winter ever -- and still two months of winter to go! (Intellicast)
• 3 February 1917...Downtown Miami, FL reported an all-time record low of 27 degrees. Miami weather records date to 1911. (David Ludlum)
• 3 February 1947...The temperature at Tanacross, AK plunged to a record 75 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) At Snag, Yukon Territory, the temperature fell to 81 degrees below zero, North America's lowest recorded official temperature (The Weather Doctor)
• 3 February 1996...Extremely cold weather persisted. Des Moines, IA dipped to 26 degrees below zero to tie its February low and broke its record for most consecutive hours below zero, which ended up being 132 hours. Milwaukee, WI also tied its record for lowest February temperature with 26 degrees below zero. The temperature at Tower, MN fell to 60 degrees below zero to set a new all-time state minimum temperature record for the Gopher State. The state record low was also tied in Iowa with Elkader reporting a frigid 47 below zero. Elizabeth, IL recorded 35 degrees below to tie the state lowest temperature record; this record has since been broken in January 1999. (Intellicast) (NCDC)
• 3 February 1997...Centralia, WA set the state record for consecutive days of measurable precipitation at 55 between 10 November 1996 and 3 February 1997. (The Weather Doctor)

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2013, The American Meteorological Society.