WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

18-22 March 2013

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Notice the Equinox -- The vernal equinox, which marks the commencement of astronomical spring, will occur this Wednesday (20 March 2013 at 1102 UTC or 7:02 AM EDT, 6:07 AM CDT, etc.), If you checked the sunrise and sunset times in your local newspaper or from the climate page at your local National Weather Service Office, you would probably find that by midweek, the sun should have been above the horizon for at least 12 hours at most locations. As discussed previously, the effects of atmospheric refraction (bending of light rays by the varying density of the atmosphere) along with a relatively large diameter of the sun contribute to several additional minutes that the sun appears above the horizon at sunrise and sunset.
Flood Safety Awareness -- Many locations around the nation annually experience spring floods that cause large monetary losses and occasionally the loss of life. Therefore, NOAA's National Weather Service and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) have designated this coming week of 18-22 March 2013 as Flood Safety Awareness Week. Check the website http://www.floodsafety.noaa.gov/ for information concerning flooding caused by excessive rain events, rapid snowmelt, ice jams and debris flow, along with useful flood safety and mitigation measures. At least 35 states are also observing this week with special activities.
International observances -- Several days during this upcoming week have been designated as special days that are intended to focus public attention on the environment and earth science:

"Earth-Sun Day"-- Since this coming Wednesday (20 March 2013) is the vernal equinox, this day has been declared Earth-Sun Day, which includes a series of programs and events that occur throughout the year culminating with a celebration on the Spring Equinox. This year's theme is "Solar Max – Storm Warning!" that is designed to explore the violent nature of the Sun at the peak of solar activity. In addition, discoveries made from NASA's heliophysics missions during this time are also shared with the public.
"World Meteorology Day" -- A celebration will be held on Thursday, 21 March 2013 for World Meteorology Day. This day is designated to celebrate the anniversary of the establishment of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on 23 March 1950. The WMO is an agency within the United Nations. This year's theme for World Meteorological Day 2013 is “Watching the weather to protect life and property." The 50 years of "World Weather Watch" will be celebrated. The "World Weather Watch" which is a WMO program that involves a worldwide system for observing and exchanging meteorological and related observations.
"World Water Day" -- Friday, 22 March 2013, has been designated by the United Nations (UN) as the annual World Water Day. In reflection of 2013 being the "International Year of Water Cooperation," the theme for this year's World Water Day is also dedicated to the theme of cooperation around water.. [UN-Water]

A name change for one of national environmental prediction centers -- Recently, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC), which is one of the nine centers in the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction Centers (NCEP), was renamed the Weather Prediction Center (WPC). The change in name, which took place two weeks ago, is meant to provide a better description of the Center's mission that involves the production of quantitative precipitation forecasts, short- and medium-range forecast graphics and discussions, winter weather products and other guidance information for the state of the atmosphere across the nation and surrounding areas out to 14 days. Forecasts or outlooks for longer lead times continue to be the mission of NCEP's Climate Prediction Center. (Editor's note: Currently, products that were available from the older HPC websites can still be accessed. EJH) [NOAA Weather-Ready Nation]
Revisiting the 1993 "Superstorm" -- Last week marked the 20th anniversary of the infamous "Superstorm" that ravaged the Atlantic Seaboard. This "Superstorm", which was also dubbed "The Storm of the Century," was noted for record setting-snowfall from Tennessee to New York, wind gusts to over 100 mph and major coastal flooding along Florida's Gulf Coast. At the time, this storm was the fourth costliest storm in US history. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) produced a technical report that identified many of the storm-related statistics. [NOAA/NCDC News] More than a half dozen National Weather Service Forecast Offices (NWSFO) across the East posted special Web pages and used social media to remember this event. Links to these NWSFO Web pages are available. [NOAA Weather-Ready Nation]
Centennial of Ohio's Flood of 1913 featured -- The Silver Jackets teams of Ohio and Indiana, with support from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, have launched a webpage that describes the Great Flood of 1913, a disastrous flood that began as nearly every river in Ohio and Indiana flooded during the second half of March 1913. This flood was responsible for the loss of at least 600 lives. More than 250,000 people were made homeless. Numerous bridges, dams, railways and roads were either destroyed or damaged, with damages estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars, making the storm to be one of the nation's worst natural disasters at that time. The Silver Jackets is an innovative program that involves numerous local, state and federal agencies including the US Army Corps of Engineers and the Federal Emergency Management Agency to address flood risk management priorities in individual states. [Midwestern Regional Climate Center]
Monitoring El Niño and La Niña -- Scientists have suggested that some of the unusual weather patterns that have affected not only the United States, but other countries during the last several years, may have been linked to events called El Niño and La Niña. For more details on how to monitor these phenomena using a variety of current weather data, please read this week's Supplemental Information…In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Review of national weather and climate for February 2013 and the 2012-13 winter --
Based upon preliminary data, scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reported that the national average temperature for the coterminous United States during February 2013 was approximately 0.8 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century average (1901-2000) average. While most states had near average statewide temperatures, five states across the Southwest had much below average temperatures. On the other hand, several states across the Northwest, New England and the Gulf Coast reported above average statewide temperatures for February.
The average temperature for the coterminous United States for the meteorological winter season (December 2012 through February 2013) was 1.9 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century average, making the recently-concluded winter the 20th warmest winter since a comprehensive national climate network began in 1895. Statewide temperatures were above average for nearly all of the nation with the exception of the Southwestern States. Six of these states running from California eastward to Colorado and New Mexico reported below average temperatures. Florida, Delaware, New Jersey and Vermont experienced one of the ten warmest winters on record since the 1895-96 winter.
Nationwide, February precipitation was 0.02 inches below the long-term (1901-2000) average. The Western States experiencing below to much below average precipitation, with California and Oregon having one of their ten driest months of February on record. Several states across the Ohio Valley also had below average precipitation. On the other hand, the Gulf Coast States experienced above to much above average February precipitation. Georgia had the wettest February on record. Several states in the Plains and the Mississippi Valley western Gulf Coast and the Plains also reported above average February precipitation.
December through February precipitation across the 48 coterminous states was 0.63 inches above the 20th-century average. Many of the states east of the Mississippi River had above to much above average winter precipitation. Several states across the West, including California had a dry winter season. [State of the Climate NOAA/NCDC]
Review of global weather and climate for February 2013 -- Using preliminary data collected from the global network of surface weather stations, scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center have determined that the combined global land and ocean surface temperature for February 2013 was the ninth highest for any February since global climate records began in 1880. The average global ocean surface temperature for February was the eighth highest on record, while the global land surface temperature for February 2013 was eleventh highest. The scientists claim that ENSO-neutral conditions that continued through the month were responsible for below average sea surface temperatures across the equatorial surface waters of the eastern and central Pacific, but above average sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Atlantic, Indian, and western Pacific Oceans. [State of the Climate/NCDC]
February national drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its February 2013 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately 24 percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of February, while one percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Causes of the 2011 Arctic "ozone hole" identified --Atmospheric scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center and colleagues have identified several reasons as why ozone concentrations in the stratosphere over the Arctic during the first three months of 2011 were approximately 20 percent lower than long term averages, resulting in what has been dubbed the Arctic "ozone hole." The researchers indicated that in addition to chlorine from human activity, the simultaneous occurrence of extremely low temperatures in the Arctic and a stagnant atmosphere combined to reduce the ozone levels. [NASA's Earth Science News Team]
Increased frequency of heavy rain events across Midwest in last 60 years -- Researchers at the University of Iowa. Princeton University and NOAA analyzed 60 years of daily precipitation data from more than 400 stations across the Mississippi Valley and they found that an increase in heavy rainfall events occurred in the upper Mississippi Valley of the Midwest during this time. The researchers also noted that the temperatures were also increasing across the region. [University of Iowa Now]
An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]
Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes -- A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [NCDC]

CLIMATE FORCING

Solar storm passing the Earth -- Last Friday, the ESA/NASA Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft captured images of a coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun's surface. The CME, or bubbles of gas and magnetic fields, was directed toward Earth. As of early Sunday morning, instruments onboard NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft detected solar particles as part of the CME approaching Earth early Sunday morning. This CME was interacting with the Earth's magnetosphere to create a geomagnetic storm. This storm was rated as a mild G2 storm on NOAA's geomagnetic storm scale that runs from G1 to G5. This storm could cause auroras near the poles but may not disrupt electrical systems on Earth or interfere with GPS or satellite-based communications systems.[NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]

CLIMATE AND HUMANS

Climate plays role in flu transmission -- A team of researchers from the National Institutes of Health's Fogarty International Center, Columbia University and the University of Arizona report finding cold-dry and humid-rainy environmental conditions appeared to be associated with seasonal influenza epidemics. These findings could encourage researchers to analyze potential associations between climatic patterns and infectious disease across a wide range of diseases and latitudes. [University of Arizona News]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Growing seasons in northern latitudes seen to be shifting northward -- A team of scientists from NASA and an international group of universities who studied a 30-year record of land surface, temperature and satellite data have concluded that vegetation growth across Earth's northern latitudes increasingly resembles the vegetation across the more lush latitudes to the south. They generated a vegetation index called the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) that could be used to track plant growth and they concluded that temperature and vegetation growth at northern latitudes currently resemble those found at locations located between four degrees and six degrees of latitude farther south 30 years ago. In addition to increased air temperatures across northern latitudes due to enhanced greenhouse effects, the duration of snow cover and the extent of Arctic sea ice have decreased, along with a longer growing season. [NASA's Earth Science News Team] Images of the trend in the NDVI over the last three decades are also available. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE MODELING

Glitch in climate model's tropical rainfall may be due to clouds over Southern Ocean -- Atmospheric scientists at the University of Washington claim that global climate models appear to overestimate the band of heavy rainfall along the Intertropical Convergence Zone over equatorial latitudes, the result of a poor simulation of the cloud cover located over the Southern Oceans around Antarctica, well to the south. Apparently, the underestimation of the clouds at these subpolar latitudes would cause more absorption of sunlight and calculations of temperatures that were too high. [University of Washington Today]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Failure of Southwestern monsoon appears key to long regional droughts -- A new 470-year-long history of summer precipitation in southwestern North America was reconstructed from analysis of tree rings by researchers at the University of Arizona and the University of Arkansas. The region included most of Arizona, western New Mexico and parts of northern Mexico. This research indicated that severe, multi-decadal droughts across southwestern North America from 1539 to 2008 often meant failure of both summer and winter rains for several years in a row, which contradicted the commonly held belief that a dry winter rainy season is generally followed by a wet monsoon season. One of the researchers noted that monsoon droughts of the past appeared to be more severe and persistent than any of the last 100 years, and the major monsoon droughts coincided with decadal winter droughts. [University of Arizona News] [Earth Institute-Columbia University]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Ground-level ozone levels drop faster than anticipated -- In a study conducted by scientists at Rice University and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), ground-level ozone levels in those American cities especially in the Northeast that have clamped down on emissions of nitrogen oxides from vehicles and industry between 2002 and 2006. The report also found that the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model misjudged the reduction in ozone by 20 to 60 percent. [Rice University News]
Website for human dimensions of climate change -- An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Seawater Salinity and Carbon Dioxide

The contemporary concern regarding global climate change has caused scientists to study the various factors that govern the ocean's ability to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide. Concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, are on the rise primarily because of increased burning of fossil fuels. Higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be contributing to increased global temperatures, a condition often identified as global warming. The ocean's role in regulating the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on the temperature, salinity, and biological components of surface waters.

Studies show that the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide is primarily temperature dependent. As noted in Chapter 8 of your textbook, gases are more soluble in cold seawater than warm seawater. Hence, changes in sea surface temperature affect the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide. We also found in Chapter 1, photosynthetic organisms assimilate carbon dioxide and release oxygen. Through cellular respiration, all organisms release carbon dioxide. Therefore, biological activity affects the ocean's ability to absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

What about the effects of changes in salinity on the ocean's uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide? Research from the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii provides some insight on this question. For nearly 20 years, scientists have been collecting physical, chemical and biological data through a large column of ocean water at Station ALOHA, a sampling site about 100 km (62 mi) north of Oahu that appears representative of oceanic conditions in the central North Pacific. In 2003, David M. Karl, a biogeochemist at the University of Hawaii in Honolulu, reported a decline in the rate at which surface ocean waters were absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In 2001, the rate of carbon dioxide uptake was only about 15% of the rate in 1989. Why the change in carbon dioxide uptake? In this region of the Pacific north of Hawaii, sea surface temperatures showed no significant change during the period of observation but precipitation decreased and evaporation increased. Less precipitation associated with drought coupled with higher rates of evaporation caused the surface water salinity at ALOHA to increase by about 1%. Increasing salinity inhibits water's ability to absorb gases including carbon dioxide. Karl and his colleagues attribute 40% of the decline in the ocean's carbon dioxide uptake to the saltier waters. The balance of the decline may be due to changes in biological productivity or ocean mixing.

Projected changes in global climate indicate significant changes in precipitation around the globe including reduced precipitation over various large areas of the oceans, resulting in potential "drought" conditions. Since changes in oceanic salinity result from changes in precipitation, the contribution that salinity plays on future assimilation of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the ocean also becomes an important consideration.

Concept of the Week: Questions

Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.

With rising sea surface temperatures, the rate of evaporation of seawater [(increases), (decreases)].
With increasing salinity and constant temperature, the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is taken up by ocean water [(increases), (decreases)].

Historical Events:

18 March 1914...San Francisco, CA reached its highest temperature ever recorded in March. The mercury rose to 86 degrees. (Intellicast)
18 March 1925...The great "Tri-State Tornado" occurred, the most deadly tornado in U.S. history. The tornado, which claimed 695 lives (including 234 at Murphysboro, IL and 148 at West Frankfort, IL), cut a swath of destruction 219 miles long and as much as a mile wide from east central Missouri to southern Indiana between 1 PM and 4 PM. (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)
18 March 2002...A snowstorm over coastal British Columbia produced the latest and heaviest single-day snowfall on record for the city of Vancouver of 2.55 inches. (The Weather Doctor)
19 March 1950...Timberline Lodge on Mount Hood reported 246 inches of snow on the ground, a record for the state of Oregon. (The Weather Channel)
19 March 1964...Up to 39 inches of snow fell at Cape Whittle for Quebec's greatest one-day snow total. (The Weather Doctor)
20-21 March 1948...Juneau, AK received 31.0 inches of snow, to set a 24-hour snowfall record for Alaska's capital. This snowfall record pales compared to the state's 24-hour snowfall record of 62.0 inches set at Thompson Pass on 28-29 December 1955. (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar)
20 March 1986...A wind gust of 173 mph was recorded in the Cairngorm Mountains, Scotland, the highest ever recorded in the United Kingdom. (The Weather Doctor)
22 March 1888...The morning's low temperature at Chicago, IL dipped to one degree below zero, the latest sub zero Fahrenheit reading in the Windy City's history. (The Weather Doctor)
23 March 1912...Residents of Kansas City, MO began to dig out from a storm that produced 25 inches of snow in 24 hours . The snowfall total was nearly twice that of any other storm of modern record in Kansas City before or since that time. A record 40 inches of snow fell during the month of March that year, and the total for the winter season of 67 inches was also a record. By late February of that year, Kansas City had received just six inches of snow. Olathe, KS received 37 inches of snow in the snowstorm, establishing a single storm record for the state of Kansas. (23rd-24th) (Intellicast) (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel)
24 March 1993...What was to be called "the winter of the return of the big snows" continued to set records. Boston, MA had 8.6 inches of snow on this day to push its monthly total to 38.9 inches that set a new March monthly snowfall record. The old record was 33.0 inches set in 1916. Boston's seasonal snowfall total now stood at 81.7 inches, the third snowiest winter season on record. (Intellicast)

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