DataStreme ECS WEEK TWELVE: 15-19 April 2013

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Watching the seasons -- phenology observations and climate change -- For centuries, interested citizens and scientists have been recording the dates of recurring biological and other natural events that appear to be related to the seasons. This tracking of these natural cyclic events, called phenology, if extended over many years, can be used to document how long-term changes in these seasonal events change in response to long-term changes in climate. For more information on recent efforts to establish a nationwide phenological observation network and how it could be used for studying climate change, see this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.
• NOAA receives prestigious Space Achievement Award -- Early last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) received the prestigious 2013 Space Achievement Award today from the non-profit Space Foundation "for its use of space-based systems in making life-saving predictions and issuing early warnings of calamitous weather conditions." NOAA monitors the planetary environment from geosynchronous orbits with its GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites) spacecraft and from sun-synchronous polar orbits with its POES (Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites) spacecraft. The award was made at the Space Foundation's 29th National Space Symposium in Colorado Springs. [NOAA News]
• NOAA Administrator makes statement on agency's budget request for 2014 -- Last week, Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting NOAA Administrator, issued a statement pertaining to her agency's Fiscal Year 2014 budget request that amounts to approximately $5.4 billion. She outlined the mission of NOAA of science, service and environmental stewardship and the role that it plays in the nation's economy and wellbeing. [NOAA News]

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• The 2012 hurricane season reviewed -- The 2012 hurricane seasons in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific are reviewed and compared to the more than 150 years of record keeping in the North Atlantic and the 40 years in the eastern North Pacific. [AMS DataStreme Atmosphere]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• Polar-orbiting environmental satellite retired after long run -- NOAA officials announced last week that all the instruments onboard the agency's NOAA-17 Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) had been turned off and the spacecraft decommissioned after nearly 11 years of collecting environmental data from the planet that were used in a variety of weather and climate models. NOAA-17 was one of the longest operating spacecraft operated by NOAA, surpassing the typical lifespan of only three years. Other POES spacecraft currently operated by NOAA include NOAA-15, NOAA-16, NOAA-18 and NOAA-19 and Suomi NPP. In addition, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) also operate polar-orbiting spacecraft. [NOAA News]
• "Flash drought" across the central Plains in 2012 due to natural weather variations -- A report released last week by the NOAA Drought Task Force and the NOAA-led National Integrated Drought Information System claims that the "flash drought" that suddenly created exceptionally intense drought conditions across the nation's central Plains during the summer of 2012 appears to have been caused by natural weather variations rather than either global ocean conditions or by human-induced climate change. The report indicates that those rain-producing low pressure systems usually found across the Plains in late spring and early summer were absent through the summer. In addition, summer thunderstorms across the Plains were infrequent and produced little rain. When compared with other droughts across the Plains over the last 118 years for which widespread climate data are available, the drought of summer 2012 was found to be the worst, including the well-known droughts of 1934, 1936 and 1988. [NOAA Research]
• Coastal Louisiana has been losing land for more than 80 years -- Surveys made from NASA satellite imagery and from US Geological Survey maps reveal that between 25 and 35 square miles of land along Louisiana's Gulf Coast disappears into the waters of the Gulf of Mexico since 1932. This loss of land has been attributed to a combination of subsidence (soil settling) and global sea level rise. [NOAA ClimateWatch Magazine]
• New multi-satellite mission will take global rain measurements -- An upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) spacecraft mission sponsored by NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) will be aimed to fill in gaps in the global coverage of precipitation measurements. Eight precipitation measurement satellites from the US, Japan, France and India will comprise the GPM constellation. The centerpiece of the mission will be the GPM Core Observatory, a satellite to be launched in early 2014 that will unify all the measurements from the constellation and serve as a reference standard. The GPM Microwave Imager will estimate precipitation intensities, while the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar will make detailed measurements of three-dimensional rainfall structure and intensity. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]
  A short video entitled "For Good Measure" was prepared at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center that explains why scientists depend upon satellites to get a worldwide view of precipitation. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]
• Method developed to combine data from different satellite systems into a detailed regional temperature map -- A graduate student at the University of Cincinnati has developed a method for combining parallel thermal data collected from sensors onboard separate satellite systems to create large and detailed maps of the spatial temperature variations across a region. The method entails the utilization of a simplifying spatial statistics technique known as co-kriging that overlaps the multiple data sets to fuse multi-sensor land surface temperature images. [University of Cincinnati News]
• Call made for marine observation network -- An assessment was recently published by a group of experts that called for the establishment of a comprehensive marine biodiversity observation network with modest funding within five years. This network would help fill major gaps in scientists' understanding of the global distribution of marine organisms, which are under unprecedented threat from climate change, pollution, overfishing, and habitat destruction. [American Institute of Biological Sciences Publications]
• An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]
• Global and US Hazards/Climate Extremes -- A review and analysis of the global impacts of various weather-related events, including drought, floods and storms during the current month. [NCDC]

CLIMATE FORCING

• First independent confirmation of global land warming is provided -- A scientist at NOAA's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado-Boulder and colleagues report that warming of the global land surface was confirmed by an observational study that did not use temperature data from land stations. The scientists used an approach termed the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR), a physically based, state-of-the-art data assimilation system that circumvents the problems faced in using weather station temperature data. Using the 20CR, surface land temperatures were inferred from the variables of barometric pressure, sea surface temperature, sea-ice concentration, and carbon dioxide, volcanic and solar variations. The derived temperatures agreed both annually and centennially with those found by weather stations. [NOAA Research]
• Volcanic islands used to determine how rainfall affects landscape formation -- Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have been studying the relationship between precipitation and erosion on Hawaii's island of Kauai, the site of one of the world's steepest gradients in annual rainfall, where over a few miles the annual precipitation totals range from approximately 350 inches along the slopes of the interior mountains to only about 20 inches of rain along the nearby coasts. The researchers estimated how much the land surface has eroded during the island's 4-million-year history. They found a clear pattern in which those regions receiving more rainfall have the deeper canyons as the rivers are more efficient in cutting into the rock. [MIT News]
• Ocean nutrients are a key component in future change -- An international team of scientists including those at the United Kingdom's National Oceanography Centre, Southampton claims that variations in nutrient availability in the world's oceans could be a vital component of future environmental change involving future climate and other human-caused factors. The report also highlights how nutrient cycles influence climate by increasing biological production, hence keeping carbon dioxide sequestered in the ocean. [National Oceanography Centre, Southampton ]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• Hurricane season forecast -- Last week, the hurricane forecast team from Colorado State University headed by Phil Klotzbach released its April forecast of the 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season that officially begins on 1 June 2013. The team, which includes Professor William Gray, foresees a hurricane season that should be more active than the long-term (1981-2010) climatology for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic. They feel that several factors would cause an active season, due in part to to an anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic in the last several months. In addition, El Niño conditions do not appear to be developing during the upcoming summer and autumn seasons in the Northern Hemisphere. In their April forecast, the forecasters call for 18 named tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms), with nine potentially becoming hurricanes. As many as four of these hurricanes could become severe, reaching category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. They also anticipate an above average probability of a major Atlantic hurricane making landfall somewhere along the coast of the coterminous US and in the Caribbean. [The Tropical Meteorology Project]
• Arctic could become nearly free of summer sea ice by 2050 -- Scientists from NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and NOAA's Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington foresee that the Arctic Ocean would experience "nearly" ice-free summers before 2050, possibly within a decade or two. They base their outlook upon three methods involving statistical projections and dynamical global climate models that all indicated nearly ice-free summers by mid-century. They also indicate that "nearly" ice-free summers do not preclude the existence of some sea ice remaining north of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland. [NOAA News]
• New sea-level rise model forecasts major climate impact on some Pacific islands -- A new report prepared by US Geological Survey scientists warn that dynamic modeling of future climate-induced global sea-level rises appear to be more bleak for some low-lying Pacific Islands than previous forecasts made by passive computer modeling. The researchers used dynamic modeling that incorporated storm wind and wave action for two of the northwestern Hawaiian Islands in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. These were compared with the passive map-based "bathtub" inundation models. [USGS Newsroom]

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE BIOSPHERE

• Early warning signs could reveal population collapse -- Physicists at the Massachusetts Institute Technology have demonstrated a way to predict the risk of the collapse of a population of living organisms due to factors such as climate change, overfishing or loss of food supply that is based upon variations in population density in neighboring regions. [MIT News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Website for human dimensions of climate change -- An interagency effort within the US federal government that included NOAA, the Bureau of Land Management and the US Forest Service, has resulted in a website called HD.gov (for HumanDimensions.gov) that provides users, such as natural resource managers, with information on the human dimensions on a variety of topics of interest such as climate change. [HD.gov]
• Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Human health and climate change

Climate scientists and other experts studying the projected changes in the global climate have been concerned that these changes can have potentially adverse effects upon human health. The specific health outcomes are highly uncertain. However, according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States Report, several key health-related issues on the national level that could be affected by climate are: heat issues and heat waves, air quality, extreme weather events, heat associated diseases, pollen effects, and vulnerable groups.

One of the more obvious consequences of changes in climate is the increased incidence of temperature-related illnesses and deaths, especially those that would occur with heat waves, or episodes of extreme heat. Projected increases in air temperature and rising humidity levels across the nation during the 21st century would also be accompanied by increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, where air temperature and heat indices would exceed certain threshold levels for several days. In the United States, recent heat waves have resulted in numerous deaths, especially in large metropolitan areas. The elderly, the poor in urban areas and those with underlying health issues (such as diabetes and hypertension) appear to be the most susceptible to higher air temperatures and extended heat waves. Some models indicate that mortality rates would increase more rapidly in northern cities, where populations are less accustomed to the less-frequent heat waves. Using a model that includes a high emissions scenario, the average annual number of heat-related deaths in the Chicago (IL) metropolitan area could reach 700 by 2050 and 1200 by 2100.

Certain health effects would be related to extreme weather events. In addition to above-described heat waves, increases in injuries and deaths could occur if extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms) and floods would increase in frequency. The disaster wrought by Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, LA and the Gulf Coast in 2005 could serve as an example. Water-borne diseases can be related to water contamination caused by heavy precipitation events. A Cryptosporidium outbreak in Milwaukee, WI occurred in 1993 in which 54 people died when the municipal drinking water supply became contaminated by sewage that was not properly treated because of overtaxed storm sewers. Some climate models suggest an increased incidence of extreme weather events across the nation during a warmer 21st century, especially in the frequency of excessive precipitation events. If improvement in the sewerage and water treatment facilities are not made, projected in creases in intense precipitation events could pose an increased health risk to many people, especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Chicago could have sewer overflow events going up by 50 to 120 percent in the future. In addition to the casualties that would be directly related to the natural disasters, such as drowning, some secondary effects to these disasters have been suggested, including problems with public health infrastructures and with post traumatic stress disorder following the event.

Increases in those infectious diseases borne by insects, ticks and rodents could be possible with future changes in climate. Temperature appears to serve as a major constraint on the range of microbes and vectors, meaning that some diseases could be spread poleward with higher temperatures. While malaria, yellow fever and dengue fever have been nearly eradicated across the nation, some other diseases, such as Lyme disease and encephalitis, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks and mites, may occur in some areas as the result of extended spells of warm wet winters, cold springs. Rising temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations appear to increase pollen production and lengthen the pollen season. Consequently, highly allergenic pollen could pose an increased health risk to many people.

The report also cautions that particular groups of people could be especially vulnerable to future climate change, highlighting the increases in the incidence of diabetes and obesity, which make individuals more susceptible to disease or air quality or heat.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

1. The number of deaths that could occur in a Chicago heat wave by 2050 under the highest danger estimates could reach [(350), (700), (1200)].
2. The incidence of water and food borne diseases [(are),(are not)] likely to increase.

Historical Events:

• 15 April 1921...Two-mile high Silver Lake (elevation 10,220 ft) in Boulder County, Colorado received 75.8 in. of snow in 24 hrs, the heaviest 24-hr total of record for North America. The storm left a total of 87 in. in twenty-seven and a half hours. (David Ludlum)
• 15 April 1927...New Orleans, LA was drenched with 14.01 inches of rain, which established a 24-hour rainfall record for the state. This record was eclipsed in August 1962, when 22.00 inches fell in a 24-hour span. (The Weather Channel)
• 16 April 1975...A single storm brought 119 inches of snow to Crater Lake, OR, establishing a state record. (Intellicast)
• 16 April 2007...An intense nor'easter raging along the New England Coast caused the barometric pressure reading at Albany, NY to fall to 28.84 inches of mercury (976.68 mb), the lowest barometric pressure reading ever recorded in April in the Empire State's capital city. (The Weather Doctor)
• 17 April 1948...A ten-minute deluge dumped 34 mm (1.34 inches) of rain on Tauranga, the wettest 10 minutes ever recorded on New Zealand. (The Weather Doctor)
• 17 April 1997...The Red River of the North crested at Fargo, ND, with a record crest of 39.6 ft, which is 22.6 ft above flood stage. This record flood, produced by several major winter storms, heavy spring rain, rapid snow melt, and ice jams, was responsible for at least 11 deaths (7 in North Dakota and 4 in Minnesota) and tremendous property damage along with large scale evacuations of residents from the Grand Forks metropolitan area. Dikes along the river gave way. Overall damage and cleanup costs have been estimated to range from $1 to $2 billion in Grand Forks, where a portion of the downtown burned as firefighters had a difficult time reaching the buildings due to the flood. [NCDC]
  Editor's Note: "History repeats!" During the second week of April 2001, the Red River at Grand Forks reached a river stage of 45 ft, or approximately 17 ft above flood stage and about 7 ft below the top of the levee. In 1997 this gauge measured a record 54.35 ft. EJH
• 18 April 2004...A record 182 consecutive days of no measurable precipitation began in San Diego, CA on this date, which ended on 17 October 2004 with 0.09 inches of rain. This new record broke the 181-day record set the previous year. Interestingly, the rain that followed the more recent dry spell resulted in October 2004 becoming San Diego's wettest month on record (4.98 inches). (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
• 19 April 1973...Glenrock, WY received 41 inches of snow in just 24 hours, and a storm total of 58 inches, to establish two state records. (18th-20th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
• 20 April 1880...Sacramento, CA had its heaviest 24-hour rainfall when 7.24 inches fell. (Intellicast)
• 20 April 1901...A spring storm produced unusually heavy snow in northeast Ohio. Warren received 35.5 inches in thirty-six hours, and 28 inches fell at Green Hill. Akron established April records of 15.6 inches in 24 hours, and 26.6 inches for the month. Pittsburgh, PA established April records of 12.7 inches in 24 hours, and 13.5 inches for the month. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
• 20 April 1984...A temperature of 106 degrees in Del Rio, TX set a new record high for April. (Intellicast)
• 20 April 1987...Fifty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The high of 92 degrees at Memphis, TN was a record for April, and the high of 94 degrees at Little Rock, AR equaled their April record. (The National Weather Summary)
• 20 April 1989...Hot weather spread from the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains Region. Twenty-three cities reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 104 degrees at Tucson, AZ was an April record, and highs of 87 degrees at Provo, UT, 90 at Pueblo, CO, and 85 at Salt Lake City, UT, equaled April records. (The National Weather Summary)
• 21 April 1989...The temperature at Las Animas, CO soared to 100 degrees to establish a state record for April. Twenty-two cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Eight cities equaled or exceeded previous April records. Tucson, AZ experienced its fourth consecutive day of record heat with an afternoon high of 104 degrees, bringing the total number of days during the month of April 1989 to 11 when record high values had either been matched or broken. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary) (Intellicast)
• 21 April 1992...Two inches of snow fell at International Falls, MN, bringing the winter season snowfall to 106.7 inches and setting a new all-time record for the city. The old record was 104.7 inches set back in the 1988-89 winter season. (Intellicast) Editor's Note: The seasonal snowfall accumulation for the 2008-09 winter reached a record 125.6 inches. EJH

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Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2013, The American Meteorological Society.