WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

WEEK TWO: 3-7 February 2014

ITEMS OF INTEREST

High-quality maps of February temperature and precipitation normals across US available -- The PRISM Climate Group at Oregon State University's website has prepared high-resolution maps depicting the normal maximum, minimum and precipitation totals for February and other months across the 48 coterminous United States for the current 1981-2010 climate normals interval. These maps, with a 800-meter resolution, were produced using the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) climate mapping system.
February weather calendar for a city near you -- The Midwestern Regional Climate Center maintains an interactive website that permits the public to produce a ready to print weather calendar for any given month of the year, such as February, at any of approximately 270 weather stations around the nation. (These stations are NOAA's ThreadEx stations.) The entries for each day of the month includes: Normal maximum temperature, normal minimum temperature, normal daily heating and cooling degree days, normal daily precipitation, record maximum temperature, record minimum temperature, and record daily precipitation; the current normals for 1981-2010.
Winter Olympics climatology -- The 2014 Winter Olympics ( officially the XXII Olympic Winter Games) are scheduled to begin this coming Thursday, 6 February 2014 and run through 23 February in the Russian city of Sochi. Some venues will be located at Krasnaya Polyana, a nearby resort town. Monthly average temperature and precipitation data for Sochi, Russia are available.
One for the record books -- If you would like more background information concerning how various temperature and precipitation extremes are identified as record events from a station's climate record, please read this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Detecting increases in sunlight reflection by geoengineering appear limited -- A scientist with NOAA claims possible difficulty in detecting and monitoring geoengineering efforts made to reduce increases in planetary temperature through deliberately increasing planetary reflectivity. Quality long-term records of solar output and the sunlight reflected from Earth back to space would be needed for assessment purposes. [NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research News]
An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAAWatch]

CLIMATE FORCING

Winter pace of Icelandic glaciers mapped by airborne radar -- A NASA research aircraft carrying the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR), which is a high-precision radar instrument developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, was deployed to Iceland last week to create detailed maps of how glaciers move during the middle of winter. These maps should help provide better understanding of processes in melting glaciers, which contribute to rising sea levels. [NASA Global Climate Change News]
Carbon emission mitigation could slow Arctic temperature increases according to climate models -- A researcher from NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory reported that climate model projections indicates carbon emission mitigation could slow major warming of the Arctic climate in the second half of the 21st century. [NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research News]
Ozone pollution in Hawaii linked to climate variability -- A team of researchers from Princeton University and colleagues from other research institutions have found that trends in Asian ozone pollution reaching the Hawaiian Islands are due to shifts in the atmospheric circulation patterns that can extend for several decades. They found that the largest amounts of low-level ozone occurred in autumn when winds carrying the pollutants from Asia increased, while smaller concentrations were found in spring with weaker winds from the west. [Princeton Journal Watch]
Rapid rises in sea level found along eastern Gulf of Mexico coast -- Researchers from the University of South Florida and their colleagues from England had found that the cyclic seasonal variations in sea level along the eastern Gulf Coast from the Florida Keys to southern Alabama have increased in range over the last 20 years (from 1993 to 2011). Summer peaks in sea level have increased, while winter minima have deepened. These changes would potentially increase coastal flooding from tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms) and stress delicate ecosystems found along the coast. The increased range is ascribed to increased temperatures and lower sea level pressure in summer that lead to higher water levels, while in winter, lower temperatures and higher air pressure would result in lower heights. [American Geophysical Union Press Release]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Popular pan-fried fish on Lake Erie could be doomed by climate change -- Researchers at Ohio State University warn that yellow perch, a popular pan fish found in Lake Erie could become a causality to increased lake temperatures and an increase in extreme precipitation events due to anticipated changing climate. The loss of this fishery would have a major economic and social impact on the area around the Lake. [NOAA News]

CLIMATE MODELING

Research on next generation of high-performance weather and climate models launched -- Scientists from NOAA and the US Navy along with their colleagues in other governmental agencies and academia began four projects to design the next generation of powerful supercomputer models intended to predict weather, ocean conditions and regional climate change. Rewritten computer models would create faster and lower-cost integrated models. [NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

REPORTS FROM THE FIELD --

A request: If you have some ocean-related experience that you would like to share with other DataStreme Earth's Climate System participants, please send them to the email address appearing at the bottom of this document for possible inclusion in a News file. Thank you. EJH

Concept of the Week: Feedback in Earth's Climate System

In Earth's climate system, feedback consists of a process where a change in one variable interacts with other variables of the system to alter that original variable. If the change reinforces the original quantity, it is known as a positive feedback. If the change suppresses the original quantity, it is a negative feedback. Feedbacks in Earth's climate system are significant--thought to be responsible for more than half the global warming expected from human activities.

Consider examples of positive and negative feedback. A warming trend in climate is likely to accelerate the rate of melting of snow and ice, producing more bare ground that absorbs more solar radiation, further raising the air temperature. A cooling trend prolongs snow and ice cover in spring and summer so that less solar radiation is absorbed, more reflected to space, bringing about additional cooling. In both cases, feedback is positive because the initial change in temperature is amplified.

Consider an example of negative feedback. While feedbacks among temperature, cloud cover, and radiation are not well understood and depend upon circumstances (e.g., type and height of clouds), they could be either positive or negative. It is thought that a warming trend in climate should increase the rate of evaporation of water from Earth's surface and thereby increase low cloud cover. A thicker and more extensive low-cloud cover reflects more solar radiation to space thereby inhibiting a further rise in surface temperature. Hence, this negative feedback would dampen the initial temperature change.

Understanding feedback in the climate system is essential for modeling and predicting climate change. If some agent or mechanism alters the climate, then feedback may either amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the change in climate. As demonstrated later in this course, many agents and mechanisms can bring about climate change (e.g., variations in solar energy output, regular fluctuations in Earth-Sun geometry). While these climate forcing agents and mechanisms drive climatic change, processes within the planetary climate system involving feedbacks significantly impact the magnitude of climate change.

Overall, which type of feedback prevails in Earth's climate system, positive or negative? A system in which positive feedback prevails is unstable. For Earth, this would move the climate regime toward an extreme characterized by excessive cold that would encase the planet in snow and ice ("snowball" or "ice ball" Earth) or toward the other extreme resulting in much higher temperatures--the product of a runaway greenhouse effect. Although Earth's climate has varied considerably over the billions of years that constitute geologic time, it appears likely that Earth's climate system has been nearly stable with negative feedbacks generally compensating for positive feedbacks.

Concept of the Week: Questions

Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.

The magnitude of a climate change [(largely depends upon)(is independent of)] positive and negative feedback phenomena operating in Earth's climate system.
Through much of Earth history, it appears that [(positive feedbacks)(negative feedbacks)(a general balance between positive and negative feedbacks)] have (has) prevailed.

Historical Events:

3 February 1917...Downtown Miami, FL reported an all-time record low of 27 degrees. Miami weather records date to 1911. (David Ludlum)
3 February 1947...The temperature at Tanacross, AK plunged to a record 75 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) At Snag, Yukon Territory, the temperature fell to 81 degrees below zero, North America's lowest recorded official temperature (The Weather Doctor)
3 February 1996...Extremely cold weather persisted. Des Moines, IA dipped to 26 degrees below zero to tie its February low and broke its record for most consecutive hours below zero, which ended up being 132 hours. Milwaukee, WI also tied its record for lowest February temperature with 26 degrees below zero. The temperature at Tower, MN fell to 60 degrees below zero to set a new all-time state minimum temperature record for the Gopher State. The state record low was also tied in Iowa with Elkader reporting a frigid 47 below zero. Elizabeth, IL recorded 35 degrees below to tie the state lowest temperature record; this record has since been broken in January 1999. (Intellicast) (NCDC)
3 February 1997...Centralia, WA set the state record for consecutive days of measurable precipitation at 55 between 10 November 1996 and 3 February 1997. (The Weather Doctor)
4 February 1996...Frigid temperatures continued over the northern US and spread southward to the Gulf Coast. A cooperative observer near Couderay, WI reported a temperature of 55 degrees below zero, which set a new record low for the Badger State. This reading is also the lowest temperature ever recorded east of the Mississippi River. Amasa, MI checked in with 51 degrees below zero, which tied the record low for Michigan. Tulsa, OK had a morning low of 11 degrees below zero for its lowest temperature in 66 years. Muskegon, MI recorded an all-time low of 19 degrees below zero. La Crosse, WI completed it longest stretch of subzero temperatures ever (144 hours). The center of the frigid arctic high-pressure system moved over Louisiana, setting an all-time record high barometric pressure of 30.82 inches (1043.6 millibars) at Baton Rouge. (Intellicast)
5 February 1887...San Francisco, CA experienced its greatest snowstorm of record. Nearly four (3.7) inches were reported in downtown San Francisco, and the western hills of the city received seven inches. Excited crowds went on a snowball-throwing rampage. (David Ludlum)
5 February 1996...The "great arctic outbreak of '96" began to wind down, but not before one more frigid morning. Greene, RI reported a state record low temperature of 25 degrees below zero. (Intellicast)
6 February 1933...The temperature at Oimekon, Russia fell to 90 degrees (Fahrenheit), tying the previous lowest recorded temperature in Asia set in 1892. (The Weather Doctor)
6 February 1933...The highest reliably observed ocean wave was seen by crew of the US Navy oiler, USS Ramapo, in the North Pacific during the night on its way from Manila to San Diego. The wave was estimated (by triangulation) to have a height of 112 feet. Average winds at the time were 78 mph. (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar)
6 February 1978...A massive nor'easter buried the cities of the northeastern U.S. The Boston, MA area received 25 to 30 inches in "The Great New England Blizzard of '78" By the time the storm ended late on the 7th, Boston had 27.1 inches of new snow to set an all-time single storm snowfall record. (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)
7 February 1892...The lowest temperature ever recorded to that time in Asia was reported from Verkhoyansk, Russia with a 90-degree below zero reading. This record was subsequently tied in 1933. (The Weather Doctor)
7 February 1989...The low of 43 degrees below zero at Boca, CA was a state record for the month of February. In Utah, lows of -32 degrees at Bryce Canyon, -27 degrees at Delta, -29 degrees at Dugway, and -38 degrees at Vernal were all-time records for those locations. (The National Weather Summary)
8 February 1933...The record low temperature for the state of Texas was set at Seminole when the mercury dropped to 23 degrees below zero. (Intellicast)
8 February 1936...The temperature at Denver, CO plunged to its all-time record low temperature of 30 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
9 February 1899...Norway House, Manitoba reported a temperature of 63 degrees below zero to set the province's record for lowest temperature. (The Weather Doctor)
9 February 1933...The temperature at Moran, WY, located next to Teton National Park, plunged to 63 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The temperature at the Riverside Ranger Station in Montana near West Yellowstone, MT dipped to 66 below zero to establish a record for the state, and a record for the nation, which stood until 1954. (David Ludlum)
9 February 1934...The mercury dipped to 51 degrees below zero at Vanderbilt to establish a record for the state of Michigan. The temperature at Stillwater Reservoir plunged to 52 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state of New York; this record was subsequently tied in February 1979. (David Ludlum) (NCDC)

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