WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

14-18 March 2016

ITEMS OF INTEREST

An "EPIC" view of lunar shadow passing across Earth -- Data collected by NASA's NASA's Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) onboard the agency's Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft was used to produce an animated sequence of 13 full disc images of Earth, including the Moon's shadow passing across the western Pacific Ocean during last week's solar eclipse. Since the DSCOVR spacecraft is located 1 million miles from Earth, it provides a constant view of the sunlit portion of the planet, resulting in Australia appearing to moving toward the east. A sequence of images showing the traveling shadow was also obtained from the Japanese Meteorological Agency's Himawari-8 satellite, which is in orbit at 22,240 mi altitude, provides a geosynchronous view of Earth as its continents appear stationary. [NASA Earth Observatory]
A more detailed image of the Sun's shadow on clouds over the South Pacific was also produced by the MODIS sensor onboard NASA's polar orbiting Aqua satellite. [NASA]
Notice the Equinox -- The vernal equinox, which marks the commencement of astronomical spring, will occur during the late night hours of next Saturday night or early Sunday morning depending upon location (officially at 0430Z on 20 March 2016, or 12:30 AM EDT on Sunday the 20th, or 11:30 PM CDT, etc. on the 19th). If you checked the sunrise and sunset times in your local newspaper or from the climate page at your local National Weather Service Office, you would probably find that by midweek, the sun should have been above the horizon for at least 12 hours at most locations. As discussed previously, the effects of atmospheric refraction (bending of light rays by the varying density of the atmosphere) along with a relatively large diameter of the sun contribute to several additional minutes that the sun appears above the horizon at sunrise and sunset.
Cherry Blossom Watch in Washington, DC -- Many tourists descend upon Washington, DC during the spring to view the sights, including the blossoming cherry trees that line the Tidal Basin along the Potomac River. The National Park service operates a website that reports the status of the cherry blossoms in anticipation of the 104th annual Cherry Blossom Festival that is scheduled to run from Sunday, 20 March through Sunday, 17 April 2016. According to their most recent forecast, experts expect that the trees should be at peak bloom between 18-23 March 2016, due to the relatively mild weather across the Middle Atlantic States, which is earlier than the average peak bloom date of 2 April. This site also has a listing of the phenological observations for past bloom dates over the past 24 years.
Monitoring El Niño and La Niña -- Scientists recently announced that suggested that a weak El Niño event has developed and should remain through at least meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere. This event should affect weather patterns across the United States during the upcoming spring months. For more details on how to monitor these phenomena, please read this week's Supplemental Information.. In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Review of national weather and climate for February 2016 and the 2015-16 winter -- Based upon preliminary data, scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reported that the national average temperature for the coterminous United States during February 2016 was approximately 5.7 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century (1901-2000) average, making this past month the seventh warmest February since a comprehensive national climate network began in 1895. As many as 16 states across the nation had statewide temperatures for last month that were within the highest ten February temperatures in the 122-year record. Only five states along the southeastern Atlantic coast had near average February statewide temperatures. In addition, the average maximum (or daytime) February 2016 temperature was sixth highest on record for the month, with Arizona reaching its highest maximum February temperature. Furthermore, the average minimum (or nighttime) temperature for the month was also the sixth highest.
The average temperature for the contiguous United States for the meteorological winter season (December 2015 through February 2016) was 36.8 degrees F, or 4.6 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century average, making the recently-concluded winter the warmest winter since 1895, surpassing the previous highest temperature set in 1999-2000. Except for near average winter temperatures in the Great Basin (Nevada and Utah), the other 46 states had statewide winter average temperatures that were above to much above average. The six New England States (Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont) had their highest winter temperatures in 121 winters.
Alaska had its warmest February since statewide records began for the 49th State in 1918 and its second warmest meteorological winter season.
Nationwide, February precipitation was 0.20 inches below the long-term (1901-2000) average, making last month the 20th driest February in 122 years. Below to much below average statewide average precipitation totals were reported across many of the states to the west of the Mississippi River, while a majority of states to the east of the Mississippi had precipitation totals that were above to much above average. New York State, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont had statewide precipitation totals for February that ranked in the top ten on record.
December through February precipitation across the 48 coterminous states was 1.26 inches above the 20th-century average, making this past winter the 27th driest winter on record. Most of the states from the Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic Seaboard and in the Pacific Northwest had above to much above winter precipitation. Iowa had a record high winter precipitation total. Only Louisiana and Wyoming had below average precipitation for this past winter.
Data analyzed by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab indicate the February snow cover extent across the contiguous US was the 13th smallest February snow cover extent in the 50-year period of record. However, the areal coverage of winter average snow cover across these states was the17th largest since 1966. [State of the Climate NOAA/NCEI]
NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
Another warm winter in Alaska -- Residents of Alaska have just experienced their third anomalous winter as the 49th State had above average temperatures and below average precipitation totals during the months of December 2015 and February 2016. Record low snowfall totals and record high overnight temperatures were reported across the state. Maps of the 2015/16 winter precipitation shows that many of the climate divisions had either record or near record low totals. Similarly, the temperature map indicated record high average temperatures for the southwestern and south central divisions. Statewide, the 2015/16 winter was the second warmest on record since 1925. A warm Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea along with a circulation regime associated with the current El Niño event contributed to the anomalous winter in Alaska. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Streak of record low Arctic sea ice continues in February -- According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the Arctic sea ice extent in February 2016 as determined from satellite observations was only 5.5 million square miles, which marks the lowest February extent since satellite surveillance began in 1979. Typically the Arctic sea ice reaches its maximum extent for the year in mid to late March. [NASA Global Climate Change News]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign comes to a close to study the Pacific's atmospheric river and to improve weather forecasts -- Researchers took airborne measurements of the atmospheric river using dropsondes deployed from NOAA's G-IV aircraft last Thursday as the plane traveled more than 3500 miles from the Hawaiian Islands to southern California. NASA's Global Hawk unmanned aircraft also captured additional atmospheric data just as the plume of humid subtropical air in the atmospheric river was making landfall along the California coast. These flights were on the last day of NOAA's six-week El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign that was designed to study the current El Niño and gather data in an effort to improve weather forecasts thousands of miles away. [NOAA Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research News]
Jump in annual growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide during 2015 is detected -- According to the lead scientist at NOAA's Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, the annual growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) measured at NOAA's Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii jumped by 3.05 parts per million during 2015. This jump represents the largest year-to-year increase in this greenhouse gas in 56 years of that gas measurements have been made at Mauna Loa. Furthermore, 2015 was the fourth consecutive year that the concentration of CO₂ grew by more than 2 ppm. [NOAA News]
Lingering traces of emissions of ozone-depleting chemical are tracked -- Scientists from the Cooperative Institute for Research In Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory recently published a new study in which they report finding lingering small amounts of carbon tetrachloride being emitted into the atmosphere at rates that were still 30 to 100 times higher than expected. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl₄), which represents a ozone-depleting gas, was once a common cleaning agent and remains an important compound in chemical manufacturing although its escape into the atmosphere has been banned for many years across the globe. Apparently, the sources of (CCl₄) may be related to the production of chlorinated chemicals, ingredients in Teflon and polyvinyl chloride, a common plastic.[NOAA News]
GOES-West satellite turns six (years old) -- Last week marked the sixth anniversary of the launch of GOES-15, NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite that was placed in an orbit of 22,240 miles above the Equator. Since sensors onboard this satellite provide high resolution images across western North America, the eastern and central Pacific Oceans and the Hawaiian Islands, it is called GOES-West. The information obtained from this spacecraft is incorporated into weather monitoring and prediction models and climate studies. [NOAA NESDIS News]
NASA drone to be used for studying Greenland glaciers -- An unmanned aircraft system (UAS) or drone named Viking-400 was recently delivered to the University of Kansas from NASA for student training and development of a radar system designed to analyze glaciers in Greenland associated with sea-level rise around the globe. The students also will generate 3-D models of the aircraft that NASA will use for engineering and analysis. [NASA Global Climate Change News]

CLIMATE FORCING

Influence of ocean tides on Antarctic ice shelf being tracked -- Researchers from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center and the Korea Polar Research Institute have installed five GPS units and two tilt meters at stations on the Nansen Ice Shelf that extends from the coast of Antarctica's Victoria land in order to study the influence that movements created by ocean tides would have upon the vertical and horizontal movements of the ice shelf. Using this knowledge, ice sheet modelers are attempting to create computer simulations of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to project how the ice will flow in the future and how it will contribute to sea level rise. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center]
Attributing extreme weather events to causes that include changing climate -- A committee from the National Academy of Sciences released a new report entitled "The Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change" during the past week that provides an analysis of extreme weather events and the degree to which they are related to climate change, primarily that involved with increasing global temperatures. Further research into attribution studies is recommended. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Updated El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion & El Niño advisory outlook released -- Late last week forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) released their monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion in which they still maintained their El Niño advisory as above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) persisted across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean in February 2016, a sign of the continuation of the strong El Niño event (an anomalous large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation pattern characterized by warm waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific). However, SST anomalies have decreased in the eastern equatorial Pacific from values that ranged between two and three Celsius degrees above normal in December to values between one and two Celsius degrees by the start of March. The CPC forecasters envision this current strong El Niño event to gradually weaken and make a transition into ENSO-neutral conditions by late in the upcoming Northern Hemisphere spring (March through May) and early summer (June through August). The forecasters indicate that a nearly 50 percent chance for the development of La Niña conditions by Northern Hemisphere fall 2016. [NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
A blog written by one of the scientists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center discusses the current El Niño event, as well as describing the temperature and precipitation anomalies (differences from average) during the last three months (December 2015 through February 2016) that correspond to meteorological winter in the Northern Hemisphere, which is generally considered as the season most impacted by El Niño. The chance of the development of La Niña conditions by this upcoming boreal autumn is addressed. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Future of Alaskan crab fishery uncertain due to increasing ocean acidity -- In recently released studies, NOAA researchers and their colleagues warn that the Alaska crab fishery has an uncertain future unless the crabs can adapt to more acidic ocean waters that are the result of higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. More acidic ocean waters cause crabs to grow more slowly and to generate softer shells. However, the researchers noted some limited capacity for the crabs to adapt to some levels of acidification during their youth. [NOAA News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Annual report of the NOAA Climate Program Office for 2015 released -- Late last week NOAA's Climate Program Office (CPO) released its 44-page 2015 annual report that provides an overview of its activities and accomplishments made by this office in climate observation, research, modeling, and decision support activities for society. [NOAA Climate Program Office News]
Environment America's Extreme Weather Map is unveiled -- Environment America, a federation of state-based citizen-funded environmental advocacy organizations, has posted their Extreme Weather Map that is an interactive map showing the number of declared weather-related disasters in the each county or parish across the contiguous United States over the last five years. The extreme weather types and events associated with these weather types are categorized in terms of severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms), winter storms (snow and ice), floods, drought and wildfires. Personal stories obtained from people affected by extreme weather are also available for reading. [Environment America]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Seawater Salinity and Carbon Dioxide

The contemporary concern regarding global climate change has caused scientists to study the various factors that govern the ocean's ability to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide. Concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, are on the rise primarily because of increased burning of fossil fuels. Higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be contributing to increased global temperatures, a condition often identified as global warming. The ocean's role in regulating the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on the temperature, salinity, and biological components of surface waters.

Studies show that the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide is primarily temperature dependent. As noted in Chapter 8 of your textbook, gases are more soluble in cold seawater than warm seawater. Hence, changes in sea surface temperature affect the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide. We also found in Chapter 1, photosynthetic organisms assimilate carbon dioxide and release oxygen. Through cellular respiration, all organisms release carbon dioxide. Therefore, biological activity affects the ocean's ability to absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

What about the effects of changes in salinity on the ocean's uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide? Research from the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii provides some insight on this question. For nearly 20 years, scientists have been collecting physical, chemical and biological data through a large column of ocean water at Station ALOHA, a sampling site about 100 km (62 mi) north of Oahu that appears representative of oceanic conditions in the central North Pacific. In 2003, David M. Karl, a biogeochemist at the University of Hawaii in Honolulu, reported a decline in the rate at which surface ocean waters were absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In 2001, the rate of carbon dioxide uptake was only about 15% of the rate in 1989. Why the change in carbon dioxide uptake? In this region of the Pacific north of Hawaii, sea surface temperatures showed no significant change during the period of observation but precipitation decreased and evaporation increased. Less precipitation associated with drought coupled with higher rates of evaporation caused the surface water salinity at ALOHA to increase by about 1%. Increasing salinity inhibits water's ability to absorb gases including carbon dioxide. Karl and his colleagues attribute 40% of the decline in the ocean's carbon dioxide uptake to the saltier waters. The balance of the decline may be due to changes in biological productivity or ocean mixing.

Projected changes in global climate indicate significant changes in precipitation around the globe including reduced precipitation over various large areas of the oceans, resulting in potential "drought" conditions. Since changes in oceanic salinity result from changes in precipitation, the contribution that salinity plays on future assimilation of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the ocean also becomes an important consideration.

Concept of the Week: Questions

Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.

With rising sea surface temperatures, the rate of evaporation of seawater [(increases), (decreases)].
With increasing salinity and constant temperature, the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is taken up by ocean water [(increases), (decreases)].

Historical Events:

14 March 1944...A single storm brought a record 21.6 inches of snow to Salt Lake City UT. (The Weather Channel)
14 March 1984...A coastal storm dumped very heavy snow over northern New England. Caribou, ME received 28.6 inches of snow in 24 hours, by far its greatest 24-hour snowfall on record. (Intellicast)
15 March 1892...A winter storm in southwestern and central Tennessee produced 26 inches of snow at Riddleton, and 18.5 inches at Memphis, resulting in the deepest snow of record for those areas. (David Ludlum)
15 March 1906...The temperature at Snake River, WY dipped to 50 degrees below zero, a record for the U.S. for the month of March. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders -1987)
15 March 1952...Over 72 (73.62) inches of rain fell on Cilaos, Reunion Island in the western Indian Ocean, the greatest global 24-hour total rainfall. (The Weather Doctor)
15 March 2004...Rain at Brownsville, TX broke a century-old precipitation record for the greatest daily rainfall accumulation for March with 3.23 inches . (The Weather Doctor)
16 March 1975...A single storm brought 119 inches of snow to Crater Lake OR establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)
16-17 March 2002...A snowstorm dumped 28.7 inches of snow on Anchorage, AK breaking the old daily record of 15.6 inches. Snow amounts ranged from 24 to 29 inches at lower elevations. (The Weather Doctor)
17 March 1906...The temperature at Snake River, WY dipped to 50 degrees below zero, a record for the coterminous U.S. for the month of March. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders -1987)
17 March 1998...Calgary, Alberta experienced its worst March snowstorm in 113 years, measuring 13 inches of snow at the airport and from 15 to 18 inches in other parts of the city. (The Weather Doctor)
17-24 March 1999...Intense Tropical Cyclone Vance (Category 5) moved across portions of Western Australia. A record wind gust for the Australian mainland of 167 mph was recorded at the Learmonth Meteorological Office. (The Weather Doctor)
18 March 1914...San Francisco, CA reached its highest temperature ever recorded in March. The mercury rose to 86 degrees. (Intellicast)
18 March 1925...The great "Tri-State Tornado" occurred, the most deadly tornado in U.S. history. The tornado, which claimed 695 lives (including 234 at Murphysboro, IL and 148 at West Frankfort, IL), cut a swath of destruction 219 miles long and as much as a mile wide from east central Missouri to southern Indiana between 1 PM and 4 PM. (David Ludlum) (Intellicast)
18 March 2002...A snowstorm over coastal British Columbia produced the latest and heaviest single-day snowfall on record for the city of Vancouver of 2.55 inches. (The Weather Doctor)
19 March 1950...Timberline Lodge on Mount Hood reported 246 inches of snow on the ground, a record for the state of Oregon. (The Weather Channel)
19 March 1964...Up to 39 inches of snow fell at Cape Whittle for Quebec's greatest one-day snow total. (The Weather Doctor)
20-21 March 1948...Juneau, AK received 31.0 inches of snow, to set a 24-hour snowfall record for Alaska's capital. This snowfall record pales compared to the state's 24-hour snowfall record of 62.0 inches set at Thompson Pass on 28-29 December 1955. (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar)
20 March 1986...A wind gust of 173 mph was recorded in the Cairngorm Mountains, Scotland, the highest ever recorded in the United Kingdom. (The Weather Doctor)

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