
542 
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- 13.2S6 77.3E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 77.3E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 14.2S7 76.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 15.5S1 75.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 16.8S5 74.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 18.2S1 74.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 13.5S9   77.0E4
TC 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
SOUTHWARD TURN AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7)
AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 23 FEET.//


067 
WTXS31 PGTW 071500 COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 020A
   CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- 13.2S6 77.3E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 77.3E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 14.2S7 76.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 15.5S1 75.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 16.8S5 74.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 18.2S1 74.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 13.5S9   77.0E4
TC 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
SOUTHWARD TURN AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7)
AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 23 FEET. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR:
CORRECTED THE WARNING NUMBER.//

