mail shea@uwp.edu, ljanders@facstaff.wisc.edu Jim - I was asked by Lyle Anderson of the State Climatology Office to respond to your email messages concerning your analyses of the temperature record at Kenosha. I have looked at your discussion and went back to the daily records, then produced a time series of the annual temperature. I arrived at similar statistics as you indicated. Yes, the annual temperature signal for Kenosha is very similar to that exhibited by long-term temperature records taken at other stations in Wisconsin. I took a look at my spreadsheets of the long-term monthly temperature records for selected stations in southeastern Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and east central Wisconsin. In my search I attempted to look for various stations that were not just the Milwaukee and Madison city records. I also took a look at the divisional average temperatures for each of these climatological divisions (9 divisions across the state). All annual records appeared to exhibit similar trends as you noted. Specifically, several warm years in the early 1950s, followed by a drop to the early 1960s, then a marked increase in the annual temperature just before 1990, followed by a drop in the mid 1990s to a relatively cold 1996, with a rapid increase by 1998. In fact, the statewide annual average temperature record also has some similar variations, with the year 1996 being the second coldest year in Wisconsin since 1891, while 1998 was the second warmest for that 108 year interval. I am curious as to what you were expecting to find in your record. If you were thinking that some decisive long-term trend in temperature would appear, then I am afraid that you will be disappointed, since this trend is not borne out. The observed temperature record for Kenosha, southeastern Wisconsin or the whole state is more complex, depending upon many factors. While these annual temperature records may appear surprising, I would suggest that you look not just at the annual averages, which may be too course a time averaging interval. (Specifically, a cold winter may be sufficiently cold or persistent or a combination of both, to completely compensate for a short, hot summer.) You may want to consider the meteorological seasons, such as summer (June, July and August), or winter (December, January, February) for further analysis. Here, you may find that some summers in the 1950s were quite warm - and dry. The summer of 1988 was a hot, dry summer. The winter of 1997-98 was very warm also, making 1998 appear to be "hot". Regardless, I am happy that you contacted us about your observations. I hope that my comments here may help alleviate your concern. If you have any other questions or comments, please feel free to contact me. Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D. Meteorologist From ljanders@facstaff.wisc.edu Fri Jun 4 17:43:23 1999 Received: from mail1.doit.wisc.edu (mail1.doit.wisc.edu [144.92.9.40]) by sunset.meteor.wisc.edu (980427.SGI.8.8.8/970903.SGI.AUTOCF) via ESMTP id RAA20651 for ; Fri, 4 Jun 1999 17:43:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: from [144.92.130.137] by mail1.doit.wisc.edu id RAA72430 (8.9.1/50); Fri, 4 Jun 1999 17:43:22 -0500 Message-Id: <3.0.2.32.19990604174256.00a70c10@facstaff.wisc.edu> X-Sender: ljanders@facstaff.wisc.edu X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0.2 (32) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 1999 17:42:56 -0500 To: hopkins From: Jim Shea (by way of Lyle Anderson ) Subject: Re: Kenosha climate data Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Lyle: I just reanalyzed the Kenosha data by doing a 4-year running average and the surprises remained. Temperature 1. Reached a peak of 50.4 in late 1955; 2. Dropped steadily to 46.2 in late 1959; 3. Dropped slowly and irregularly to 44.4 in early 1986; 4. Climbed steadily to 48.2 in March of 1990; 5. Dropped to 46.4 in mid 1996; and 6. Climbed steadily to 47.6 in late 1998. Do these numbers seem reasonable to you. Jim Shea From ljanders@facstaff.wisc.edu Fri Jun 4 17:40:18 1999 Received: from mail1.doit.wisc.edu (mail1.doit.wisc.edu [144.92.9.40]) by sunset.meteor.wisc.edu (980427.SGI.8.8.8/970903.SGI.AUTOCF) via ESMTP id RAA26697 for ; Fri, 4 Jun 1999 17:40:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: from [144.92.130.137] by mail1.doit.wisc.edu id RAA27898 (8.9.1/50); Fri, 4 Jun 1999 17:40:17 -0500 Message-Id: <3.0.2.32.19990604173950.00a6ab70@facstaff.wisc.edu> X-Sender: ljanders@facstaff.wisc.edu X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0.2 (32) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 1999 17:39:50 -0500 To: hopkins From: Jim Shea (by way of Lyle Anderson ) Subject: Re: Transmitted data Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Lyle: I imported the Kenosha data into Excel, did a rather quick and dirty calculation of running average yearly temperature, and got some rather surprising results (surprising to me, that is). What I found was that the average temperature peaked in early 1954 at about 51.5, reached a low of 43 in early 1986, rose rapidly to 50 in late 1986, dropped down to below 45 in late 1996, and then rose rapidly to very nearly equal its 1954 high in late 1996. Does any of this agree with any analyses you have done on Wisconsin data? Jim