DATASTREME SUPPLEMENTAL SUMMARY

To complement the Daily Summary for Monday, 4 December 2000

MONITORING THE HURRICANE FACTOR --
THE 2000 HURRICANE SEASON


The end of November last week marked the end of the official hurricane season in both the North Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean) and the Eastern North Pacific basin, a region extending from the western coast line of North America westward to a longitude of 140 degrees west longitude. While a hurricane or other tropical cyclone may develop after 30 November, such an event is rare. In the North Atlantic, the latest recorded hurricane was on 31 December 1954 and the earliest was on 7 March 1908.

ATLANTIC BASIN

The 2000 Atlantic hurricane season followed in the tradition of the previous two seasons as being more active than the long-term average. As a preliminary review of the 2000 Atlantic hurricane season, 15 named tropical cyclones formed, representing either tropical storms or hurricanes - both types of systems are assigned a name, such as Floyd, for identification purposes. This total also include an unnamed subtropical storm system that developed some tropical characteristics. Of these systems, 8 reached hurricane status, having winds in excess of 74 mph, while the other 6 reached only tropical storm status (with winds between 39 and 74 mph). Of the eight hurricanes, three were considered to be major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

The first tropical system of the season was Hurricane Alberto that formed on 3 August 2000 and the last was Tropical Storm Nadine, which formed on 19 October; the unnamed subtropical storm formed the following week. With a life span of almost 3 weeks (20 days), Alberto had the distinction of being the third longest-lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin, and the longest-lived cyclone during the month of August.

Only two tropical storms (Gordon and Helene), made landfall along the coast of the continental United States. See http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT_nov_text.html for more details.

EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN

In the eastern North Pacific, the hurricane season runs from 15 May to 30 November. The 2000 hurricane season had 17 named tropical systems, with 6 reaching hurricane status. Hurricane Carlotta was the strongest, with 155 mph sustained winds and it caused the sinking of a freighter with the drowning of its 18 crew members. Tropical Storms Norma and Rosa made landfall along the Mexican coast. See http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSEP_nov.html for more details.

PERSPECTIVE

The 2000 hurricane season was more active than usual in the Atlantic Basin. Using long term averages running from 1931 to 1998, a typical North Atlantic hurricane season would have 10 named storms, with nearly 6 hurricanes and 4 tropical storms. The active 1995 season - one of the most active on record - had 19 named systems, with 11 being classified as hurricanes and 8 tropical storms. The least active in recent history was 1982 when only 5 named storms were reported.

Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University in Fort Collins has been issuing long-range hurricane forecasts for more than a decade. His forecasts are based upon several factors that include analysis of the wind field at several levels, the rainfall over West Africa and the effects of El Niño. In December 1999 (with update in April 2000), he issued a forecast for the 2000 season of 11 named storms, to include 7 hurricanes with 3 becoming major. Gray plans to issue a forecast for the 2001 hurricane season on this coming Friday, 8 December 2000. For the forecast refer to http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/ .

The 2000 season in the eastern North Pacific was comparable to the long-term (1966-1999) average of 15 named tropical cyclones of which 9 typically reach hurricane status.


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URL: datastreme/learn/m_sup.html
Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2000, The American Meteorological Society.