DataStreme Activity 12A:

HURRICANES

Do Now:

  1. Print this file.
  2. Print the Monday Image 1 and Image 2 Files.
  3. Print (when available) the Tuesday, 5 December 2000, Daily Summary File.

To Do Activity:

  1. Read Chapter 12 in STUDY GUIDE, Part A: Narrative.
  2. Go to STUDY GUIDE, Part B: Applications. Start Activity 12A.
  3. Return here (Monday Activity A File) when told to do so.

Go To STUDY GUIDE - Activity 12A Now


Note

If you did not already fill out the Fall 2000 DataStreme participant questionnaire, please download and print it now. Then complete it and give it to your LIT leader at the final meeting.


WELCOME BACK: Procedure continued from STUDY GUIDE.

The 2000 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin, just ended (30 November), was arguably the best in many years by being both active and tranquil. No hurricanes made US landfall, so the death and destruction so commonly associated with hurricanes were minimal. The long-term normal activity over a season is about 10 tropical (named) storms, 6 of which become hurricanes, and 2 are "major" (Saffir-Simpson category 3 or higher) hurricanes. This season there were 15 tropical storms of which 8 became hurricanes with 3 being major. During this abundant activity however, only 2 storms made US landfall, both only at tropical storm strength. For details see the Monday, 4 December, Supplemental Information File. By comparison, last year's active season featured two devastating hurricanes whose effects still are felt in North Carolina. We will focus on them in this activity to highlight the dangers of hurricanes.

"THE 1999 HURRICANE SEASON HAD ABOVE-NORMAL ACTIVITY WITH TWELVE NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES...OF WHICH FOUR WERE TROPICAL STORMS AND EIGHT WERE HURRICANES. ...FIVE OF THE EIGHT HURRICANES WERE MAJOR...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE... HURRICANES BRET...FLOYD...AND IRENE MADE LANDFALLS ON THE U.S. MAINLAND AS CATEGORY 3...2...AND 1 HURRICANES ...RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION ... DENNIS PRODUCED NEAR-HURRICANE CONDITIONS ON THE U.S. MAINLAND. ...THE INLAND FLOODING FROM FLOYD WAS A DISASTER OF IMMENSE PROPORTIONS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...PARTICULARLY IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE 56 U.S. DIRECT DEATHS DUE TO FLOYD IS THE LARGEST HURRICANE DEATH TOTAL SINCE AGNES KILLED 122 PERSONS IN 1972. ...

THE FIRST PASS OF DENNIS ON THE 30TH [of August] PRODUCED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE MAY HAVE OCCURRED ON THE OUTER BANKS AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL TOTALS REACHED AS HIGH AS 19 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THESE RAINS HELPED SET THE STAGE FOR THE DISASTROUS FLOODING FROM HURRICANE FLOYD A COUPLE OF WEEKS LATER. FOUR DEATHS RELATED TO HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED IN FLORIDA. ...

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FLOYD WERE HIGH. THESE RAINS COMBINED WITH SATURATED GROUND WATER LEVELS FROM PREVIOUS RAIN EVENTS...INCLUDING HURRICANE DENNIS...TO PRODUCE AN INLAND FLOOD DISASTER. IN ADDITION TO ONE PERSON KILLED IN THE BAHAMAS...THERE WERE 56 DEATHS IN THE UNITED STATES ...MOSTLY DUE TO DROWNING FROM FRESH WATER FLOODS. RAINFALL TOTALS WERE AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...12 TO 14 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY...4 TO 7 INCHES OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND UP TO 11 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. STORM SURGE WATER LEVELS REACHED AS HIGH AS 9 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TOTAL DAMAGE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM THREE TO OVER SIX BILLION DOLLARS. ..."

(The above are excerpts from the preliminary report on the 1999 Atlantic Basin hurricane season by the National Hurricane Center. The complete report is available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/1999/tws/MIATWSAT_nov.html.)

  1. Dennis did its greatest damage after weakening to a tropical storm while off the North Carolina coast. Image 1 is a map of the track of Dennis from 24 August to 7 September 1999 (courtesy of the NWS office in Wilmington, NC) showing 6-hourly locations of the storm center. Off the coast of North Carolina, Dennis took a [(straight-forward) (winding)] course along its path. This path probably [(did) (did not)] make an easy task for forecasters.

  2. As Dennis finally came onshore in North Carolina on September 4th, the greatest height of the storm surge would have been expected to occur to the [(northeast) (southwest)] side of the landfall position on the coast.

  3. Having weakened to a tropical storm, the greatest danger of Dennis to inhabitants well inland would probably have been [(strong winds) (high storm surge) (heavy rainfalls)].

  4. Image 2 is the track of Floyd. Floyd made landfall near Cape Fear, NC, on September 16th as a category two hurricane. Within a 2-week period, residents of eastern North Carolina [(were) (were not)] affected by the passage of both Dennis and Floyd. The greatest danger to the inhabitants of central North Carolina from Floyd would have been the [(strong winds) (high storm surge) (heavy rainfalls)].

  5. Compare the tracks of Dennis and Floyd. Considering the direction and location of the tracks and the coastal population centers of the United States, [(Dennis) (Floyd)] posed the greater threat to the most people and property along the East Coast.

    Early season rains in central and eastern North Carolina made soils in that area wet as a prelude to the later heavy rains that were brought by the tropical storms. The relatively flat topography inhibited the subsequent drainage leading to the disastrous and prolonged flooding that devastated much of North Carolina. (Ironically, at the same time, other areas of the Southeast suffered from drought conditions.)


DataStreme participants: Your successful completion of the DataStreme course includes 3 graduate semester hours of credit from the State University of New York College at Brockport. The graduate catalog description of the course is:

ESC 675 Real-Time Weather Studies
Principles of meteorology will be developed from analysis of electronically-delivered current environmental data and learning activities. This distance-learning course will rely on computer receipt, analysis, and display of geoscience data with classroom applications.


"ESC" indicates this is a course from the Department of the Earth Sciences and "675" indicates it is a course at the graduate level. You may request a certified transcript with this credit anytime after receiving the letter noting that college semester credit with the grade has been awarded ("unofficial college transcript"). To request a certified transcript copy, call Registration and Records at SUNY Brockport at 716-395-2531 or http://cc.brockport.edu/~admweb01/transcrp.html and follow the provided directions.


Hold this activity until you have completed all applications for this week. Instructions for faxing your LIT mentor will appear at the end of this week's Activity B.


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