WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND -- Much of the nation experienced relatively mild and tranquil weather conditions over the weekend. Several areas did experience inclement weather, with one area across the southern Plains experiencing heavy rains along a cold front that dissipated. Another area of less than ideal weather was along Florida's Atlantic coast where strong onshore easterly winds continued to produce high seas and beach erosion.
On Friday, high temperatures were at least 10 degrees above average, with the largest departures found across the Northeast, where highs were on the order of 20 degrees above the average highs for early November. Record high temperatures were set on Friday in Texas at Abilene (84 degrees), Wichita Falls (84 degrees) and Lubbock (83 degrees). On Saturday, many locations across the northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley experienced high temperatures that were at least 20 degrees above the average highs for the date. Pensacola, FL reported a record high temperature of 84 degrees. Relatively warm weather continued across the nation on Sunday as afternoon high temperatures were at least 25 degrees above average across the northern Plains. Following a morning low temperature of 73 degrees, which set a new record high minimum, Phoenix, AZ reached a record high temperature of 95 degrees. Record high temperatures were also tied or set in Arizona at Tucson (91 degrees), Douglas (84 degrees) and Nogales (86 degrees), as well as at Pensacola, FL (84 degrees) and at Rapid City, SD 77 (degrees).
A cold front trailing southwestward from a low pressure center near James Bay in Ontario moved eastward across the Midwest on Friday morning. The southern portion of the front contained some active thunderstorms across southern Missouri. Joplin had a record rainfall total of 2.82 inches on Friday. By Friday night the northern portion of the front had moved eastward across the Great Lakes, while the southern portion of the front moved slowly across the Plains, stalling over the Texas Panhandle, where a new low pressure began to form along the front.
As the low pressure system moved eastward into Quebec on Saturday, the northern portion of the cold front continued to move eastward into New England by morning and off the coast by evening. Southern portions of the front remained stalled as a stationary front along the Red River Valley separating Texas and Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms continued along this portion of the stationary front. Thunderstorms moving across the Texas Panhandle early Saturday evening were accompanied by 60 mph wind gusts and one inch diameter hail. While the front had dissipated by Sunday morning, the area of precipitation lingered over the Red River Valley and the Texas Panhandle.
In the Southwest, an area of rain spread across southern California on Saturday evening. This precipitation continued across southern California and into Arizona on Sunday.
A series of cold fronts moved across the northern tier of states, with little precipitation. However, as one of the cold fronts moved into the Northeast on Sunday, some thunderstorm activity developed. Thunderstorm winds downed trees and power lines in Binghamton and Endicott in south central New York State late Sunday afternoon.
Attention along the Gulf Coast and in Florida was turned southward as Hurricane Michelle (see below) intensified into a major hurricane as it moved northward across the western Caribbean. As the projected storm track became better defined by Saturday, hurricane warnings had been posted for the Florida Keys, with mandatory evacuation orders posted for visitors and non-residents of locales such as Key West.
WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK -- The following highlights of the national weather have been extracted from the surface weather map for late Sunday night.
Southern Florida was feeling the some of the effects of Hurricane Michelle which was crossing Cuba and moving toward the northeast. A widespread shield of rain extended northward to near Melbourne. Most locations had received no more than an inch of rain by late Sunday night. Tropical storm-force winds ranging between 39 to 54 mph were reported in the Florida Keys, with Key West reporting a 43 mph wind gust.
As Hurricane Michelle continues toward the Bahamas, tropical storm warnings remained in effect for the Florida Keys and Florida's Atlantic coast northward to Jupiter Inlet. Between 1.25 and 2.00 inches of rain are anticipated in the Miami-Dade metropolitan area in the 24 hours ending on Monday evening.
Because of the relatively tight pressure gradient that has been in place for days resulting in a persistent easterly wind, high seas continued to batter Florida's Atlantic coast. Heavy surf advisories remained in effect from Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet on Sunday night. With winds anticipated to reach gusts of at least 35 mph, a wind advisory was in effect for portions of interior south Florida to as far north as Palm Beach County.
A weak storm system was moving across the Northeast, accompanied by rainshowers and thunderstorms. The low pressure center was located over the Champlain Valley of Upstate New York with an occluded front that extended southward to a point of occlusion over eastern Pennsylvania. A warm front continued southward into Maryland, while a cold front curved southwestward across the Appalachians and into the Ohio Valley. Most of the precipitation continued across the Middle Atlantic States and southern New England. Some snow was falling across the higher terrain of the Adirondacks.
By Monday morning the storm system is forecast to have moved eastward off the coast with the center located over the southern Gulf of Maine. The cold front is also expected to have traveled off the Eastern Seaboard. Between 0.25 and 1.35 inches of precipitation could fall in the 24 hours ending on Monday evening across New England and adjoining portions of New York State.
Widespread rain was found across the Southwest on Sunday night associated with a low pressure center located over the lower Colorado Valley in southeastern California. Rain was found across a large portion of Arizona and portions of southern California, to include the Los Angeles Basin.
This region of precipitation is expected to spread northward and eastward across the Southwest on Monday. Between 0.1 and 0.5 inches of rain are anticipated in the 24 hours ending on Monday evening across Arizona and portions of southern Utah.
A cold front trailing southwestward from a low pressure center in Canada's Northwest Territories stretched across central Washington State and western Oregon. Most of the precipitation associated with this cold front was found behind the cold front across western Washington and northwest Oregon.
The cold front is expected to continue moving eastward and southward on Monday, with northern portions of the front reaching central Montana by evening, with the southern portion of the front located over northern California. As much as 0.3 inches of rain could fall during the 24 hours ending Monday evening over the Olympic Peninsula and the Cascades of Washington State.
Dense fog advisories were over northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma, as well as portions of western and central Missouri and eastern Kansas.
UPPER AIR -- The 500 and 300 mb charts for 00Z Monday indicate a large height ridge across the Southwest and a height trough over the Northeast. A relatively warm dome of air extends upward through the troposphere over the Southwest, causing the heights of the constant pressure surfaces to ridge upward. As a result, the strongest winds at both 500 and 300 mb are forced to the north around the northern periphery of the ridge along the Canadian border. Farther east, a cold pool of air extending southward across the eastern Great Lakes produced the height trough across the Northeast and eastern Lakes. The strongest winds are deflected to the south of this trough.
The bulls-eye of height contours found on both the 500 and 300 mb charts over eastern South Dakota are the result of an apparent error in the computed heights of the individual pressure levels from the radiosonde at Aberdeen, SD.
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ACROSS THE LOWER 48 -- On Sunday, the lowest temperature reported in the continental U.S. was 14 degrees at Big Piney and Rawlins, WY, while Sunday's highest temperature was 95 degrees at Casa Grande, Coolidge and Phoenix, AZ.
ALASKAN WEATHER -- High pressure located along the north Arctic coast between Barrow and Deadhorse dominated the weather across much of Alaska on Sunday afternoon. Relatively cold air was found across much of the state, with early afternoon temperatures below zero across the north. Anaktuvuk had a temperature of 8 degrees below zero and Barrow had 7 degrees below zero. Numerous other locations had wind-chill equivalent temperatures that were below zero. A mixture of relatively clear skies and clouds were found across interior Alaska. A sinusoidal stationary front ran from the southern Bering Sea across the Alaska Peninsula along the Gulf coast into southern Yukon Territory. This front separated the cold arctic air to the north from milder Pacific air to the south. Two relatively weak storm systems were located over the Gulf of Alaska. One low pressure center was situated south of the Kenai Peninsula in the northwestern Gulf. A second low pressure center was situated over the southern Gulf northwest of the Queen Charlotte Islands. Clouds and some light precipitation were found across southern Alaska. Windy conditions were also found across southern Alaska. Sand Point had peak wind gusts to 43 mph while Togiak reported gusts to 28 mph. A powerful storm system east of the Kamchatka Peninsula was moving northeastward across the western Aleutians with hurricane force winds greater than 74 mph. The central pressure of this storm was 964 mb. A high wind warning was in effect for the Aleutians west of Adak as winds are expected to increase in speed to as high as 85 mph by Monday night.
The lowest overnight temperature in Alaska as of Sunday was 11 degrees below zero at Ambler and the midafternoon highest statewide temperature was 44 degrees at Annette.
HAWAIIAN WEATHER -- Northeasterly trade winds were found across the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday afternoon, the result of a large ridge of high pressure with a central pressure of 1036 mb situated approximately 1100 miles to the north of Honolulu. Isolated to scattered trade showers were found along the windward slopes of the islands. This ridge is expected to drift to the east-southeast by Tuesday. As a result of a relaxed pressure gradient, the trade winds should weaken slightly through Wednesday. A powerful storm near the Kamchatka Peninsula is expected to generate ocean swell that could propagate southeastward, reaching the islands late in the week. A small craft advisory was in effect for state waters.
EYE ON THE TROPICS -- Tropical Storm Michelle intensified into the eighth hurricane of the season on Friday morning. At least four people had been killed by the storm and seven people were reported missing by Friday as the developing tropical system moved past Honduras, accompanied by heavy rains. As Hurricane Michelle continued to move toward the north-northeast on Friday and Saturday, it evolved into a major hurricane (Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale) as maximum sustained surface winds reached at least 140 mph, with gusts to 160 mph. Hurricane Michelle made landfall on the southern coast of Cuba near the Bay of Pigs late Sunday afternoon as a category 4 hurricane. As Michelle moved across the mountains of central Cuba near Colon, winds dropped to about 110 mph. Michelle reemerged over open water south of Cay Sal Bank. As of early Monday morning (06 Z), Hurricane Michelle was located 190 miles south of Miami, FL and was moving to the northeast at 13 mph. Maximum sustained surface winds near the center of system were 105 mph and its central pressure was 971 mb.
Hurricane Michelle is expected to continue moving toward the northeast, reaching Andros Island in the Bahamas by morning and to near Nassau by midday. Some strengthening could occur as the system moves out over the warm and open waters of the Florida Strait and into the western North Atlantic toward the Bahamas on Monday. Hurricane warnings remained in effect for the western half of Cuba, as well as for the northwestern and central Bahamas. A hurricane watch was posted for Bermuda.
In the eastern North Pacific, Hurricane Octave weakened as it moved toward the northwest and was downgraded first to a tropical storm and then to a tropical depression. By Saturday afternoon this system had essentially dissipated some 1500 miles to the west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
WINTER AWARENESS -- Several states are observing their Winter Weather Awareness Week during this upcoming week (4-10 November): Michigan, Minnesota, New York, North Dakota and Wisconsin. Residents of these states should become aware of the hazards associated with winter weather and review the safety oriented materials prepared by their local National Weather Service Offices. Other states will conduct Winter Awareness activities within the next several weeks.
In a recent press release the National Weather Service announced that beginning on 1 November, wind-chill equivalent temperatures were being determined using a new computation method. An interactive wind-chill calculator allows you to enter values of air temperature and wind speed to determine the both old and new wind-chill equivalent temperatures.
STORMS OF NOVEMBER -- The month of November is memorable in the central portion of the country, especially along the Great Lakes, for several powerful storms that have wreaked havoc on the region. For more information, consult the optional Monday Supplemental Information.
From the files of the Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO and Intellicast