Weekly Ocean News

26-30 November 2018

Items of Interest:

Second volume of latest national climate assessment report just released -- This past Friday, the U.S. Global Change Research Program that consists of thirteen U.S. government agencies released "Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States" of its 4^th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), which is a Congressionally mandated quadrennial report about how climate change is impacting the United States. This second volume of the NCA4 report follows the Climate Science Special Report, known as "Volume I of the Fourth National Climate Assessment," which was released in November 2017. The just-released second volume of the NCA4 report focuses on the impacts and risks associated with climate change for U.S. sectors (such as agriculture, health, transportation and energy) and regions of the nation. A detailed picture is presented of how communities across the country are already feeling the effects of climate change, together with what impacts U.S. residents could expect if drastic action were not taken to address climate change. Additional discussion and analysis will be forthcoming. [Union of Concerned Scientists Press Release]
Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2018 Campaign for December commences -- The twelfth in a series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2018 will commence this Thursday (29 November) and continue through Saturday, 8 December. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. These constellations are Perseus in the Northern Hemisphere and Grus for the Southern Hemisphere. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The first series in the 2019 campaign is scheduled for 29 December-7 January 2019. [GLOBE at Night]
NOAA Tide Tables for 2019 are available -- NOAA's National Ocean Service has announced that the 2019 NOAA Tide Tables and Tidal Current Tables are now available. These annual tide predictions and tidal current predictions, which represent the 153rd edition, can be obtained online for US coastal stations; printed tide tables are also available. [NOAA National Ocean Service News]
Three years ago, a narrative along with a timeline visualization of the evolution of the NOAA Tide Tables since the first tide tables for locations along the East Coast of the United States when first published by the US Coast Survey in 1853. The changes in the methods used to compute the tide tables over the last 150 years are also described. [NOAA National Ocean Service News]
Beginning of meteorological winter season -- The winter meteorological season in the Northern Hemisphere starts on Saturday (1 December). Recall that climatologists and meteorologists have elected to use a standard three-month grouping to identify each meteorological season. Hence, the months of December, January and February are considered the winter meteorological season. You will note that the winter solstice, marking the day where the length of daylight is least in the Northern Hemisphere is still three weeks away, falling on Friday, 21 December 2018. Since the lowest temperatures typically fall in mid to late January, the meteorological winter tends to be centered on the coldest time of the year in the Northern Hemisphere.
In addition, Friday (30 November) marks the end of the official 2018 hurricane seasons in the North Atlantic, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, along with the eastern and central North Pacific basins.
The 2018 hurricane seasons reviewed -- With the end of the official 2018 hurricane season in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific on Friday (30 November 2018), a quick review of this year's tropical cyclone statistics for the official 2018 hurricane season has been made for both basins. [AMS DataStreme Atmosphere]
For those who are interested in obtaining historic hurricane information, the "Historical Hurricanes Mapping & Analysis Tool" developed by NOAA allows the search and display of detailed data for more than 6000 tropical cyclones in seven of the planet's major ocean basins based upon a data set that runs from 1842 to 2017. Coastal population trends are also available for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States.
Tropical cyclone climatologies of North Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific -- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has an updated and revised edition of its "Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1851-2006." While a paper copy of this book is available for a cost from NHC, a 243-pg pdf file of this edition can be downloaded for free. NHC also released the first edition of "Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, 1949-2006." In addition to a paper copy is available for sale, a free 164-page pdf file is available. Both of these climatologies have numerous graphics that show long-term changes in tropical cyclone frequency in the two basins.
A climatology of tropical cyclones in the central North Pacific from the 1950s to 2013 is available from the CPHC climatology website maintained by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, HI.
It's Sure Dark! -- Have you noticed that the sun is setting early these days? During the first ten days of December, many locations throughout the country will experience their earliest sunset times of the year. The exact day for the earliest sunset depends upon the latitude, so you may want to check the date in your locale from the sunrise tables appearing in an on-line, interactive service available for the entire year at most cities in the United States. The reason for the earliest sunsets occurring in early December rather than on the winter solstice (during the evening hours of Friday, 21 December 2018) is that the sun is not as precise a timekeeper as our watches. Because of a combination of factors involved with Earth's elliptical orbit about the sun and the tilt of Earth's spin axis with respect to the plane of the ecliptic, the sun appears to "run fast" by as much as 15 minutes as compared with clock time in November. However, with the approach of the winter solstice and perihelion (the smallest earth-sun distance during late night hours of 2 January 2019), the apparent sun slows during December and finally lags the clock by 12 minutes in February. Consequently, a noticeable and welcome trend toward later sunsets can be detected by the end of December, especially by those residents in the northern part of the country. However, the latest sunrises occur at most locales in early January, meaning that early risers will continue seeing dark and dreary mornings for another month.
SKYWARN™ recognition -- This Saturday 1 December 2018 (starting at 00Z or 7:00 EST PM on Friday night) has been declared SKYWARN™ Recognition Day, a day in which the National Weather Service and the American Radio Relay League celebrate the contributions made by volunteer SKYWARN™ radio operators during the past year's Severe Weather Operations.
Accessing and interpreting climate data -- If you would like to obtain a variety of climate data for your home town or state that are available from the National Weather Service, please read this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth. This Supplemental not only identifies some of the sites to find the data, but also provides you with a brief explanation of the terminology used to identify the climate data.

Ocean in the News:

Eye on the tropics --- Several tropical cyclones were reported during the last week over the tropical waters of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres:
- In the North Indian Ocean basin:
  Tropical Cyclone Gaja had weakened to a tropical depression at the start of last week as it traveled across the Arabian Sea after passing over southern India over the previous weekend. At the time Gaja was heading toward the west-northwest approximately 910 miles to the southeast of Masirah Island, Oman. Satellite imagery and additional information on Cyclone Gaja can be found on the NASA Hurricane Blog.
- The former Tropical Storm Bouchra, which had weakened to a post-tropical cyclone northwest of Cocos Island, Australia during the previous week, was seen to reform over last weekend. At the beginning of this past week, the reborn Bouchra was traveling toward the southwest as it was located nearly 800 miles to the southeast of Diego Garcia. After several days, the new Bouchra was torn apart by wind shear and ultimately disspated by midweek approximately 700 miles to the southeast of Diego Garcia. Satellite images and additional information on Tropical Cyclone Bouchrahe can be found on the NASA Hurricane Blog.
In the western North Pacific basin:
- The remnants of Tropical Storm Toraji traveled across southern sections of Vietnam on the Indochina Peninsula at the beginning of last week and then exited out over the Gulf of Thailand. These remnants intensified to become a tropical depression that eventually weakened during the second half of this past week approximately 400 miles to the west-southwest of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The NASA Hurricane Blog had additional information and a satellite image for Tropical Depression Toraji as it was over the Gulf of Thailand.
- Tropical Depression 33W (TD-33W), had developed at the start of last week over the waters of the Philippine Sea approximately 600 miles to the east of the southern Philippine island of Mindanao. By early Monday, TD-33W was 900 miles to the east-southeast of Manila, Philippines. Traveling toward the west-northwest, TD-33W was expected to strengthen to become a tropical storm as it heads toward the southern Philippine Islands.
  NASA Hurricane Blog https://blogs.nasa.gov/hurricanes/tag/33w-2018/
  Tropical Storm 33W (Usagi)
  NASA Hurricane Blog https://blogs.nasa.gov/hurricanes/tag/man-yi-2018/
  
  https://blogs.nasa.gov/hurricanes/tag/toraji-2018/

Australian tropical cyclone season outlook issued -- Forecasters at the Australian Government's Bureau of Meteorology recently released an outlook for the upcoming 2018-19 Australian tropical cyclone season that typically begins in November and runs through April. These forecasters foresee a fewer number of tropical cyclones than average within each of the five regions that surround the continent. They base their outlook upon the status of ENSO over the preceding July to September, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and a survey of the suite of international outlook models. Therefore, their outlook for a lower than average tropical cyclone season is based upon the possible development of El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean and near average ocean temperatures to the north and east of Australia. [Australian Bureau of Meteorology]

Review of October 2018 global temperatures and sea ice cover -- Preliminary data analyzed by scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) indicated that the global combined land and ocean average surface temperature for October 2018 was 1.55 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century average (1901-2000) for the month. Therefore, last month's global combined temperature was the second highest October temperature since global temperature records began in 1880, trailing the record highest October global combined temperature that was set in 2015 by 0.23 Fahrenheit degrees. When considered separately, the monthly average temperature over the global oceans for October 2018 was 1.30 Fahrenheit degrees above average. The monthly average October temperature of the land surface was 2.23 Fahrenheit degrees above average. Thus, the October 2018 temperatures over both the ocean and land surfaces ranked second in their respective records behind the record warm October 2015.
When considering the combined land-ocean global temperature for the year to date (January-October 2018), this ten-month temperature was the fourth highest global temperature for the first ten months of any year since 1880. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
A global map of Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events for October 2017 is available from NCEI.
According to satellite data collected by National Snow and Ice Data Center, the sea ice over the Arctic Ocean during October 2018 was the third smallest areal extent for any October since satellite-derived ice records began in 1979. The sea ice around Antarctica also was the fourth smallest October ice extent in the last 40 years.
The snow cover extent across North America in October 2018 was the second largest extent for October in 51 years of record. [NOAA/NCEI Global Snow & Ice]

An international global greenhouse gas information system is advanced -- Two weeks ago, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) hosted the first symposium and user summit of the Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS) in Geneva, Switzerland. The aim of this three-day symposium was to bring together technical developers and key users from several different sectors to help inform and guide reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat trapping greenhouse gases driving climate change. IG3IS will help support the Paris Agreement on climate change. [World Meteorological Organization Media Centre News]

Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations reach new record levels in 2017 -- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently released its "WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 14: The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2017." This report describes the state of the heat-absorbing atmospheric greenhouse gases for carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) based upon global observations through 2017. Carbon dioxide levels reached 405.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2017, a level not seen in 3-5 million years. In addition, concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide also rose, along with a resurgence of a potent greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance called CFC-11, which is regulated under the Montreal Protocol. WMO foresees no sign of a reversal in these trends, which are driving long-term climate change, sea level rise, ocean acidification and more extreme weather. [World Meteorological Organization Media Centre]

United Nations climate change conference to convene -- The twenty-fourth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 24) and the fourteenth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 14) is set to convene next Sunday (2 December 2018) in Katowice, Poland and run through Friday, 14 December. The key objective of this Katowice Climate Change Conference is to adopt the implementation guidelines of the Paris Climate Change Agreement, namely to hold the global average temperature to as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius. [United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change COP 24]

Podcast provides information on harmful algal blooms -- NOAA's National Ocean Service recently posted a 15:20-minute NOAA Ocean Podcast entitled "All About HABs: Uncovering the Mystery of Harmful Algal Blooms" that features an interview with a oceanographer with the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science who is at the NOAA Lab in Beaufort, NC. He dispels the use of the term "red tide" to identify all harmful algal blooms (HABs) and provides information on the various HABs, including how to recognize these blooms, where they occur and how they can be prevented. [NOAA National Ocean Service Podcast]

An ENSO conference is held in Ecuador -- A staff member at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center recently posted a blog on the ClimateWatch Magazine describing her experiences attending the IV International Conference on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during mid-October in Guayaquil, Ecuador along with approximately 130 scientists from around the world. She discussed some topics presented at the conference, including ENSO in a warmer climate; the reasons for ENSO complexity; and the difficulties in predicting ENSO. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA's National Weather Service, FAA and FEMA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAA/NWS Daily Briefing]

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com].

Concept of the Week: Climate Feedback Processes

Earth's climate system includes many interacting variables. Some variables are external to the Earth-atmosphere system and some are internal. External variables include solar energy output and Earth-sun geometry (i.e., the Milankovitch cycles). Internal variables include properties of the Earth's surface (e.g., albedo, moisture), the concentration of key atmospheric components (e.g., greenhouse gases, sulfurous aerosols), and cloud cover and thickness.

An important consideration in understanding how Earth's climate system responds to some perturbation is feedback. Feedback is defined as a sequence of interactions among variables in a system that determines how the system responds to some initial perturbation in one or more of the variables. Variables in Earth's climate system may interact in such a way as to either amplify (positive feedback) or lessen (negative feedback) a change in climate. An example of positive feedback is the ice-albedo effect described in Chapter 12 of the AMS Ocean Studies textbook. Less ice cover in the Arctic greatly reduces the albedo of the Arctic Ocean causing higher sea surface temperatures and accelerated melting of the multiyear pack ice.

Consider an example of negative feedback. Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide enhances the greenhouse effect causing global warming. Global warming in turn raises sea surface temperatures and increases the rate of evaporation. A more humid atmosphere means more persistent and thicker cloud cover but clouds have both a cooling and warming effect on the lower atmosphere. The relatively high albedo of cloud tops causes cooling whereas absorption and emission of infrared radiation by clouds causes warming by contributing to the greenhouse effect. Satellite measurements and numerical models indicate that cooling would dominate.

In general, negative feedback tends to dominate over positive feedback in Earth's climate system, limiting the magnitude of climate change. The great thermal inertia of the ocean is the principal reason for dampening the planetary temperature response.

Historical Events:

26 November 1703...Bristol England was damaged by a hurricane. The Royal Navy lost 15 warships.
26 November 1778...Captain James Cook of the British Royal Navy became the first European to discover Maui in the Sandwich Islands (later renamed the Hawaiian Islands). (Wikipedia)
26 November 1847...LT William Lynch, USN, sailed from New York to Haifa on USS Supply for an expedition to the River Jordan and the Dead Sea. His group charted the Jordan River from the Sea of Galilee to the Dead Sea and compiled reports of the flora and fauna of the area. (Naval Historical Center)
26 November 1888...A late season hurricane brushed the East Coast with heavy rain and gale force winds. The hurricane passed inside Nantucket and over Cape Cod, then crossed Nova Scotia. (David Ludlum)
26 November 1966...The world's first tidal power station was opened at Rance estuary in the French province of Brittany. This power plant, fitted with reversible turbines, generates 500 million kilowatt-hours annually. (Today in Science History)
26-28 November 1898...The "Portland" storm raged across New England producing gale force winds along the coast and heavy snow inland. A foot of snow blanketed Boston, MA, and 27 inches fell at New London, CT. Winds at Boston gusted to 72 mph, and wind gusts to 98 mph were estimated at Block Island, RI. A passenger ship, the S.S. Portland, sank off Cape Cod with the loss of all 191 persons aboard, and Boston Harbor was filled with wrecked ships. The storm wrecked 56 vessels resulting in a total of 456 casualties. (26^th- 28^th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
27 November 1701...Anders Celsius, the astronomer who invented the Celsius thermometer scale, was born in Uppsala, Sweden. (National Weather Service files)
27 November 1703...The first Eddystone Lighthouse off the coast of Devon, England (approximately 14 miles southwest of Plymouth) was destroyed in the "Great Storm," and killed its builder Henry Winstanley. This first light was in an octagonal wooden structure built in 1698. The "Great Storm" is reported to have killed more than 8000 people. (Wikipedia) (Today in Science History)
27-28 November 1905...Heavy snow and wind blasted the western Great Lakes with as much as seven inches of snow in northwestern Wisconsin and sustained winds of 42 mph recorded at Duluth, MN for 29 straight hours and 65 mph winds for 13 continuous hours. Severe drifting resulted. Eighteen ships were destroyed or disabled on Lake Superior. The ship Mataafa was grounded and broke in two in Duluth harbor. Nine of the fifteen crew of the Mataafa froze to death despite running aground within 100 yards of the shore. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
28 November 1520...Portuguese navigator Ferdinand Magellan reached the Pacific Ocean after passing through the treacherous South American strait that now bears his name in a 38-day passage. He was the first European to sail into the Pacific Ocean from the Atlantic to the east. (The History Channel)
28 November 1960...A severe storm produced waves 20 to 40 feet high on Lake Superior. Duluth, MN was buried under a foot of snow, and clocked wind gusts to 73 mph. The northern shore of Lake Superior was flooded, and property along the shore was battered. Thousands of cords of pulpwood were washed into Lake Superior, and up to three feet of water flooded the main street of Grand Marais. Thunder accompanied the "nor'easter". (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
30 November 1925...An extremely rare late November hurricane began to affect the west coast of Florida as it strengthened during the day. The storm made landfall very early on 1 December south of Tampa Bay, weakened to a tropical storm as it crossed central Florida, and exited around St. Augustine. The storm regained Hurricane strength off Jacksonville late on the 1st. Heavy rain continued over northeast Florida on the 2nd. Gale force winds were reported from the Keys to Jacksonville and over 50 people lost their lives, mostly on ships at sea. Damage along the coast south of Jacksonville was heavy and excessive rain and wind seriously damaged citrus and truck crops. (National Weather Service files)
1 December 1969...Ocean swells generated by a storm more than 1000 miles to the north-northwest of the French Frigate Shoals produced 50-foot high surf along the outer shoals of Tern Island, submerging the 300-foot wide island under two to three feet of water. The 19-member Coast Guard contingent was evacuated, but considerable damage was done to buildings. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
1 December 1990...Workers from the United Kingdom and France on the Channel Tunnel construction project met approximately 120 feet beneath the English Channel seabed, to establish the first ground connection between the British Isles and mainland Europe since the last Ice Age. (Wikipedia)
2 December 1755...The second Eddystone Lighthouse near Plymouth, England was destroyed by fire. This light had replaced an earlier light that had been destroyed in the "Great 1703 Storm." The current structure is the fourth light to be constructed at that site. (Wikipedia)